Goldman Sachs Raises Nebius Group $NBIS Price Target to $77 on 2026 AI Capacity Expansion Plans

In the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence infrastructure, Nebius Group’s recent analyst endorsements underscore a compelling growth narrative, with projections pointing to substantial upside amid surging demand for high-performance computing resources.

Analyst Optimism Fuels Momentum for Nebius

Goldman Sachs has elevated its price target for Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) to $77 from a previous $68, while maintaining a Buy rating, as reported on 8 August 2025. This adjustment reflects heightened confidence in the company’s positioning within the AI-driven cloud computing sector, where capacity expansions and technological advantages are seen as key differentiators. The firm’s analysis highlights Nebius’s full-stack software offerings and cost efficiencies, which could enable it to capture a larger share of the burgeoning market for AI workloads.

This move aligns with broader industry trends, where investments in data centres and GPU clusters are accelerating to meet the computational demands of generative AI models. Nebius, formerly associated with Yandex’s international assets, has pivoted towards becoming a dedicated AI infrastructure provider, with plans to scale its capacity to 1GW by the end of 2026. Such ambitions, if realised, position the company to generate significant revenue streams, potentially reaching $7 billion annually at 70% occupancy rates, according to scenario-based modelling derived from industry benchmarks.

Market Context and Competitive Edge

The upgrade comes at a time when global AI spending is forecasted to exceed $200 billion by 2025, per estimates from International Data Corporation (IDC) as of mid-2025. Nebius’s strategic focus on Europe and emerging markets provides a hedge against the saturation seen in North American hyperscalers, where supply constraints have driven up pricing. Goldman Sachs’s note emphasises the company’s “large-scale expertise” in deploying AI-optimised infrastructure, which could yield operating margins superior to peers grappling with higher energy and procurement costs.

Comparatively, other analysts have echoed this sentiment. Northland Securities raised its target to $47 in May 2025, citing robust pipeline growth, while DA Davidson adjusted to $50, maintaining a Buy stance. BWS Financial held steady at $60, reinforcing the positive outlook. These converging views suggest a consensus around Nebius’s ability to monetise its assets effectively, with implied market capitalisations potentially climbing towards $16 billion under optimistic scenarios.

Valuation Implications and Risk Assessment

At current valuations, Nebius trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple that appears undemanding relative to AI pure-plays like Nvidia or Super Micro Computer, which command premiums north of 10 times sales. Goldman’s $77 target implies roughly 45% upside from levels around $46–50 observed in mid-July 2025, before recent market volatility. This projection is anchored in discounted cash flow models assuming mid-teens revenue growth through 2027, bolstered by partnerships and capacity ramps.

However, risks loom large in this high-stakes arena. Geopolitical tensions in Europe could disrupt expansion plans, while competition from established giants like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure might erode pricing power. Energy price fluctuations represent another wildcard, given the power-intensive nature of AI data centres. Analyst sentiment, as tracked by TipRanks in July 2025, rates Nebius with a Moderate Buy consensus, reflecting these balanced considerations.

Broader Sector Ripples

The enthusiasm for Nebius mirrors a wider re-rating of AI enablers. Goldman Sachs itself has been bullish on related themes, recently hiking targets for Nvidia to $200 on 7 August 2025, anticipating sustained demand for accelerators. Similarly, upgrades for entities like Chevron, tied to energy supply chains, underscore the interconnectedness of AI growth with infrastructure fundamentals.

For investors, this signals opportunities in under-the-radar plays like Nebius, where execution on capacity goals could unlock outsized returns. Yet, the path forward demands vigilance; as one wry observer might note, in the AI gold rush, not every pickaxe seller strikes it rich—some just end up buried under their own ambitions.

Forward-Looking Scenarios

• Bull Case: Successful 1GW rollout by 2026, capturing 5–7% of European AI cloud market share, driving revenues to $7–8 billion and justifying multiples of 5–6 times sales.
• Base Case: Moderate expansion to 700MW, with 60% utilisation, yielding $4–5 billion in top-line growth and steady margin improvements to 40%.
• Bear Case: Delays in financing or regulatory hurdles cap growth at 400MW, compressing valuations to 2–3 times sales amid intensified competition.

These models, informed by Goldman Sachs’s framework and cross-referenced with IDC projections, highlight the asymmetric upside potential. As of 9 August 2025, market participants appear to be pricing in a blend of these outcomes, with sentiment leaning positive per aggregated analyst reports.

Investment Considerations

Nebius’s story is one of transformation and ambition in a sector where scale begets dominance. The recent price target elevation by Goldman Sachs serves as a bellwether for the stock’s trajectory, potentially catalysing further institutional interest. Investors eyeing entry points should monitor upcoming earnings for updates on capacity milestones and customer wins, which could validate or challenge the optimistic thesis.

In summary, while the AI infrastructure boom carries inherent volatilities, Nebius emerges as a noteworthy contender, backed by analyst conviction and strategic positioning. The path to $77 and beyond will hinge on execution, but the foundations appear solid for those willing to bet on the next wave of digital disruption.

Data as of 9 August 2025, compiled from Goldman Sachs reports and IDC forecasts.

References

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• Goldman Sachs. (2025, August 7). Raises Nvidia Price Target. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/nvidia-gets-price-target-hike-from-goldman-sachs-ahead-of-earnings.html
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