Key Takeaways
- The median age of US homebuyers reached a record 56 in 2024, with individuals over 70 now comprising 22% of purchases—surpassing those under 35.
- First-time buyers now average 38–40 years old, delayed by high property prices, rising mortgage rates, and increasing student debt.
- Institutional investors own roughly 30% of new single-family homes, heightening competition and limiting access for younger buyers.
- Delayed homeownership may impair wealth accumulation for younger cohorts, exacerbating generational inequality.
- Investors may consider senior-focused REITs, affordable housing plays, and multifamily rental exposure amid shifting demographics.
In the evolving landscape of the US housing market, a striking demographic shift has emerged: the number of homebuyers aged over 70 now surpasses those under 35. This inversion highlights profound changes in affordability, economic pressures, and long-term market dynamics, with implications for investors eyeing real estate, mortgage-backed securities, and related sectors.
The Ageing Profile of Homebuyers
The median age of US homebuyers has climbed to a record 56 years in 2024, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) covering transactions from July 2023 to July 2024. This marks a sharp rise from 49 years in 2023 and stands in stark contrast to the 31-year median observed in 1981. Repeat buyers, in particular, skew even older, with their average age reaching 61 in the same period, up from 58 previously.
More telling is the generational breakdown. Buyers over 70 accounted for approximately 22% of home purchases in 2024, outpacing the combined share from Gen Z and millennials under 35. First-time buyers, traditionally a younger cohort, now average 38 to 40 years old—a decade older than the norm a generation ago. This delay in entry to homeownership reflects entrenched barriers, including elevated property prices and mortgage rates that have lingered above 6% for much of the past two years.
Drivers Behind the Demographic Tilt
Several interlocking factors have fuelled this trend. Housing affordability has plummeted, with the median home price in the US hovering around levels that require incomes far exceeding the national median. For instance, historical trends show that in the 1980s, first-time buyers typically entered the market at age 29, supported by more accessible financing and lower price-to-income ratios. Today, those ratios have ballooned, pricing out younger demographics who face student debt burdens averaging over $30,000 per borrower and stagnant wage growth relative to inflation.
High interest rates have compounded the issue. The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, which peaked in 2023, pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates to multi-year highs, deterring entry-level buyers. Meanwhile, older Americans—often with substantial equity from long-held properties or retirement savings—can leverage cash purchases or downsizing proceeds. Indeed, around 40% of US homes are mortgage-free, a figure that underscores the advantage held by long-term owners unwilling to sell in a high-rate environment.
Investor activity has also reshaped the market. Corporate landlords and institutional buyers now control about 30% of new single-family homes, driving up competition and prices in desirable areas. This has squeezed out younger buyers, who increasingly turn to rentals, further delaying homeownership milestones.
Implications for the Housing Market and Economy
This demographic skew carries broad ramifications. For the housing sector, an older buyer base suggests slower turnover and reduced inventory. Homeowners over 70 are less likely to relocate frequently, contributing to a persistent supply shortage. The typical home sold in 2024 was 36 years old, up from 27 years in 2012, indicating buyers are opting for ageing stock amid a dearth of new builds. Construction rates remain below pre-2008 levels, hampered by regulatory hurdles and labour shortages.
Economically, delayed homeownership among the under-35 cohort could dampen wealth accumulation and consumer spending. Home equity has historically been a cornerstone of middle-class net worth, but with ownership rates for those under 35 dipping to around 38%—down from 43% in the 1980s—generational wealth gaps may widen. This trend aligns with broader data showing millennials and Gen Z holding off on major life events, potentially slowing household formation and related economic activity.
From an investment perspective, this shift favours sectors catering to older demographics. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) focused on senior living or age-restricted communities may see sustained demand, while mortgage lenders could face thinner pipelines for first-time buyer products. Analyst models, such as those from Seeking Alpha, project that if affordability metrics do not improve, the average first-time buyer age could rise to 40 by 2030, potentially reducing overall transaction volumes by 10–15% over the decade.
Forecasts and Potential Scenarios
Looking ahead, analyst-led forecasts suggest a mixed outlook. If interest rates ease to below 5% by late 2025—as modelled by some economists assuming Federal Reserve cuts—younger buyers might re-enter the fray, potentially boosting first-time purchases to 30% of the market from the current 24%. However, persistent inflation or supply constraints could entrench the status quo, with over-70 buyers maintaining a 20–25% share.
Sentiment from credible sources remains cautious. The NAR’s 2025 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report notes affordability as the primary hurdle, with surveyed realtors expressing pessimism on near-term improvements for younger cohorts. Similarly, a Redfin analysis from May 2025 highlights the shrinking price gap between old and new homes, signalling that buyers are settling for less amid high costs, which could pressure margins for homebuilders.
In a dryly humorous vein, one might say the American Dream has gone grey—less about white picket fences for the young and more about retirement retreats for the seasoned. Yet, this quip underscores a serious risk: without policy interventions like expanded down-payment assistance or zoning reforms to spur supply, the market risks becoming a preserve for the affluent elderly, sidelining economic vitality.
Investment Angles and Strategies
For investors, navigating this terrain requires focus on resilient assets. Diversified exposure to multifamily rentals could hedge against single-family slowdowns, as younger non-buyers fuel demand for apartments. Historical parallels from the post-2008 recovery show that demographic-driven markets reward patience; for example, senior housing REITs outperformed broader indices by 15% annually in the 2010s.
- Short-term plays: Monitor mortgage rate-sensitive ETFs, which could rally on Fed pivots benefiting younger buyers.
- Long-term bets: Allocate to builders emphasising affordable housing, anticipating eventual policy shifts.
- Risk factors: A prolonged high-rate environment might exacerbate inventory lock-in, depressing volumes and related revenues.
Tables can illustrate these trends effectively. Below is a summary of key demographic shifts based on 2024–2025 data:
| Category | 1981 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Buyer Age | 31 | 56 | +25 years |
| First-Time Buyer Age | 29 | 38 | +9 years |
| Buyers Over 70 (%) | N/A | 22% | Surpasses under-35 share |
| Under-35 Ownership Rate | 43% | 38% | -5% |
These figures, drawn from NAR and related reports, emphasise the urgency for adaptive strategies.
Conclusion
The dominance of over-70 homebuyers over their under-35 counterparts signals a market in flux, driven by affordability crises and economic disparities. Investors should weigh these trends against broader cycles, positioning for a potential rebound if conditions favour youth entry. As of 14 August 2025, the data points to caution, but also opportunity in targeted segments.
References
- https://www.ipx1031.com/homeownership-data-report-2025/
- https://www.apolloacademy.com/median-age-of-homebuyers-56/
- https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/many-first-time-homebuyers-are-pushing-40-millennials-wait-vain-better-rcna201786
- https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2025/jul/13/first-time-us-homebuyers-low
- https://www.thisoldhouse.com/moving/homeownership-statistics
- https://www.newsweek.com/average-age-first-time-home-buyer-hits-all-time-high-1979634
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/05/the-average-age-of-first-time-us-homebuyers-is-38-an-all-time-high.html
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4812311-average-age-first-time-home-buyers-how-changed-past-25-years
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- https://www.redfin.com/news/aging-housing-inventory/
- https://www.nwrealtor.com/2025/05/01/nars-2025-home-buyers-and-sellers-generational-trends-report/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-age-u-homebuyers-rises-074535793.html
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