OpenAI to Double Compute Fleet in 5 Months Driving CoreWeave $CRWV Revenue Backlog Surge

As the artificial intelligence sector continues to accelerate, OpenAI’s aggressive expansion of its computational infrastructure is poised to reshape the landscape for specialised cloud providers. Reports indicate that OpenAI plans to double its compute fleet within the next five months, a move that underscores the escalating demand for high-performance GPUs and data centre capacity. This surge in requirements from leading AI developers is not only driving innovation but also bolstering the revenue pipelines of key infrastructure players, with CoreWeave emerging as a critical beneficiary through its strategic partnerships.

The Surge in AI Compute Demand

The rapid evolution of generative AI models demands unprecedented levels of computational power, pushing companies like OpenAI to scale their operations exponentially. This expansion is part of a broader trend where AI firms are investing heavily in infrastructure to train and deploy increasingly complex models. According to industry analyses, the global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow at a compound annual rate exceeding 30% through 2030, fuelled by advancements in machine learning and the proliferation of AI applications across sectors.

CoreWeave, a Nasdaq-listed provider of AI-optimised cloud services, stands at the forefront of this wave. The company has built its business around delivering purpose-built data centres equipped with Nvidia GPUs, catering specifically to the needs of AI workloads. Historical data shows CoreWeave’s revenue skyrocketed from $16 million in 2022 to $1.92 billion in 2024, reflecting a 737% year-over-year increase in the latter year. For 2025, guidance points to revenues between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion, with forecasts extending to $16.5 billion by 2027, underpinned by a robust revenue backlog.

Partnership Dynamics with OpenAI and Microsoft

A cornerstone of CoreWeave’s growth narrative is its deepening ties with OpenAI. In March 2025, the two entities inked a five-year agreement valued at $11.9 billion, which provides OpenAI with dedicated AI infrastructure while injecting $350 million into CoreWeave through stock purchases. This deal alone contributed $11.2 billion to CoreWeave’s backlog in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting the partnership’s scale. As OpenAI ramps up its compute fleet, analysts anticipate further commitments that could significantly inflate CoreWeave’s future revenues.

Microsoft, a major stakeholder in OpenAI, also plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem. The tech giant has committed substantial resources to AI infrastructure, with contracts potentially worth billions extending through 2030. In 2024, Microsoft accounted for 62% of CoreWeave’s revenue, though recent adjustments due to delivery timelines have tempered some agreements. Despite these hiccups, Microsoft’s Azure cloud services reported a 39% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with a contracted backlog of $368 billion, up 37%. This interconnected web—where Microsoft supports OpenAI’s ambitions—positions CoreWeave as a vital supplier, potentially amplifying its backlog as compute demands double.

CoreWeave’s Earnings Outlook

CoreWeave is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on 12 August 2025, after market close, with an earnings call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Investors are keenly watching for updates on the revenue backlog, which stood at $25.9 billion as of 31 March 2025, including $14.7 billion in remaining performance obligations. The first quarter saw revenues surge 420% to $981.6 million, surpassing estimates of $857 million, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $606.1 million at a 62% margin.

Analyst models suggest that OpenAI’s fleet expansion could add billions more to CoreWeave’s backlog in the coming quarters. For instance, if the doubling of compute resources translates to proportional infrastructure needs, CoreWeave might secure additional multi-year contracts, potentially pushing its 2025 revenue towards the upper end of guidance. However, this growth comes amid hefty capital expenditures: the company plans to invest $23 billion in 2025 to expand its data centre capacity to around 420 MW of active power, dwarfing its projected revenues of $1.06 billion to $1.10 billion for the year in some estimates.

Valuation metrics as of 12 August 2025 reflect market enthusiasm tempered by volatility. CoreWeave’s shares closed at $139.78, up 7.90% from the previous close of $129.55, with a trading volume of 19,286,859 shares. This places its market capitalisation at $67.3 billion, against a 52-week range of $33.52 to $187.00. The stock has gained 36.25% over the past 200 days, outperforming its 200-day moving average of $102.59. However, with a trailing twelve-month EPS of -2.53 and a price-to-book ratio of 31.94, the company trades at a premium, signalling investor bets on future profitability despite current losses.

Microsoft’s shares, in contrast, ended the session at $521.77, down 0.05% from $522.04, with a market cap of $3.88 trillion. Its forward P/E stands at 34.90, backed by an EPS forecast of 14.95, underscoring its more mature position in the AI value chain.

Risks and Market Sentiment

While the outlook is bullish, risks abound. CoreWeave’s aggressive spending has raised concerns, as evidenced by a 2.5% share drop following the disclosure of its expanded OpenAI deal in May 2025, which failed to offset worries over capital outlays. The company’s net loss widened to $314.6 million in Q1 2025, driven by interest expenses on $13 billion in GPU-backed debt—a novel financing model that leverages hardware as collateral.

Analyst sentiment, as compiled from credible sources like Seeking Alpha, rates CoreWeave as a “Hold” with an average score of 2.8, reflecting caution amid high valuations and execution risks. Reuters reports note investor unease over spending plans, even as partnerships with entities like IBM and expansions into new regions bolster long-term prospects. Dry humour aside, betting on AI infrastructure is akin to fueling a rocket—exhilarating, but one hopes the trajectory avoids any black holes of oversupply.

Implications for the AI Ecosystem

OpenAI’s compute expansion signals a maturation phase for AI, where infrastructure providers like CoreWeave could capture a larger share of the value chain. With competitors such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud also vying for dominance, CoreWeave’s focus on GPU-centric solutions gives it an edge in specialised workloads. If the backlog swells as anticipated, it could validate the company’s $23 billion investment thesis, potentially leading to adjusted EBITDA margins expanding beyond the 62% seen in Q1.

Looking ahead, model-based forecasts from firms like FinTech Weekly project CoreWeave’s data centre footprint to triple by 2027, supporting revenue growth to $16.5 billion. This aligns with broader trends: Nvidia-backed ventures are thriving, and Microsoft’s ongoing AI push—evident in its 800 million-plus Copilot users—will likely sustain demand.

In summary, as AI compute needs double in the near term, CoreWeave’s earnings report could illuminate the path forward, with backlog growth serving as a barometer for the sector’s health. Investors should monitor execution on partnerships and capex efficiency, as these will determine whether the company rides the AI wave or gets caught in its undertow.

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