UP Fintech Holding Limited ($TIGR), operating under the brand name “Tiger Brokers,” presents a compelling investment opportunity within the burgeoning online brokerage landscape. The company’s strategic focus on serving investors across Asia, particularly those interested in cross-border trading, aligns with powerful secular trends of increasing wealth and digital penetration in these dynamic markets. While risks certainly exist, the firm’s recent financial performance, coupled with a compelling valuation, suggests a favourable risk-reward profile for long-term investors.
Industry Overview
The global online brokerage market is experiencing robust growth, fuelled by the democratisation of finance and the rise of digitally native investors. Statista projects the global market size to reach \$1.5 trillion by 2030[1]. This expansion is particularly pronounced in Asia, where rapid economic development and increasing smartphone adoption are driving demand for accessible investment platforms.
Company Analysis
UP Fintech differentiates itself through a multi-pronged approach:
- Cross-border expertise: A core strength lies in facilitating cross-border investment, catering to the needs of a globally dispersed Chinese diaspora and other international investors.
- Innovative wealth management: The company’s TradingFront platform offers sophisticated tools, including automated investment strategies and structured products like Sharkfin and Snowball Callable Deposit Note CN (SDFCN), which provide attractive yields and diversification opportunities.
- Technology-driven platform: UP Fintech has invested heavily in its proprietary trading platform, providing a seamless user experience across multiple asset classes and geographies.
This strategy has yielded impressive results. In Q1 2025, UP Fintech reported record profitability, with revenue surging 55.3% year-over-year to \$122.6 million and non-GAAP net income reaching \$36 million, a remarkable 145% increase[2]. Client assets grew to \$45.9 billion, a 39.5% year-over-year rise[2], highlighting the company’s ability to attract and retain assets.
Investment Thesis
Our investment thesis rests on three key pillars:
- Untapped growth potential in Asia: UP Fintech is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the rapidly expanding Asian online brokerage market. The company’s focus on underserved segments, such as cross-border investors and those seeking innovative wealth management products, provides a distinct competitive edge.
- Strong financial performance and momentum: The company’s recent financial results demonstrate its ability to execute on its growth strategy. Robust revenue growth, expanding margins, and increasing client assets point to a sustainable upward trajectory.
- Attractive valuation: Despite its strong growth prospects, UP Fintech trades at a compelling valuation relative to its peers. As of July 2025, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.23 compares favourably to the industry average of 5.0–6.0, suggesting significant upside potential.
Valuation & Forecasts
We employed a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to arrive at our target price. Key assumptions include a revenue growth rate of 30% over the next three years, gradually moderating to a long-term growth rate of 10%. We used a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12%, reflecting the company’s risk profile. Our DCF analysis suggests a fair value of \$14.50 per share.
| Year | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | Free Cash Flow ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025E | 160 | 48 | 32 |
| 2026E | 208 | 77 | 51 |
| 2027E | 270 | 116 | 77 |
In addition to our DCF analysis, we also considered comparable company analysis. UP Fintech trades at a discount to its peers on a P/S basis, further supporting our valuation.
Risks
Key risks to our investment thesis include:
- Regulatory changes: The online brokerage industry is subject to evolving regulations in various jurisdictions. Changes in these regulations could negatively impact UP Fintech’s operations.
- Competitive landscape: The online brokerage market is becoming increasingly competitive. UP Fintech faces competition from both established players and new entrants, which could pressure margins and market share.
- Geopolitical risks: UP Fintech’s focus on Asian markets exposes it to geopolitical risks, which could affect investor sentiment and market volatility.
Recommendation
We rate UP Fintech as a Buy with a 12-month price target of \$14.00, representing approximately 24% upside potential from its current price. We believe that the company’s strong growth prospects, robust financial performance, and attractive valuation outweigh the potential risks.
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