Key Takeaways
- The U.S.-EU trade agreement, with its 15% tariff on EU goods and energy purchase commitments, is expected to benefit U.S. firms in semiconductors, AI, and energy by encouraging onshoring.
- Major semiconductor companies including NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom are well-positioned to gain from increased domestic demand and more resilient supply chains for AI infrastructure.
- The deal’s energy clauses create opportunities for established players like Tesla, through its energy storage division, and for emerging innovators such as Eos Energy and Oklo.
- AI firms such as Palantir could experience greater demand, driven by the military equipment and data-sharing provisions within the agreement.
- While market sentiment is broadly positive, risks remain, including the potential for retaliatory tariffs from the EU and adverse currency fluctuations.
The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement, finalised on 27 July 2025, introduces a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. while committing the EU to substantial purchases of American energy and military equipment. This framework could accelerate onshoring trends in technology manufacturing and bolster U.S. energy exports, creating tailwinds for select companies in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and alternative energy. By favouring domestic production and reducing reliance on European supply chains, the deal may enhance profitability for U.S.-based firms, though broader market volatility from trade uncertainties remains a risk.
Semiconductor Leaders Poised for Gains
Semiconductors form the backbone of technology supply chains, and the agreement’s emphasis on onshoring could mitigate disruptions from international tariffs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), with a market capitalisation of USD 3.1 trillion as of 27 July 2025, derives approximately 45% of its revenue from data centre operations, which align with rising demand for AI infrastructure. In the fiscal quarter ending 28 April 2025 (Q1 FY2026), NVIDIA reported revenue of USD 26.0 billion, a 262% increase from USD 7.2 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by GPU sales. The deal’s potential to encourage U.S. manufacturing investments could further support NVIDIA’s expansion, as evidenced by its planned USD 1.0 billion investment in domestic facilities announced in June 2025.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) complements this narrative, focusing on CPUs and GPUs for data centres. As of 27 July 2025, AMD’s market capitalisation stood at USD 226 billion, with Q2 2025 revenue (ending 30 June 2025) reaching USD 5.8 billion, up 9% year-over-year from USD 5.4 billion. The company’s data centre segment grew 115% to USD 2.8 billion, reflecting strength in AI-related products. Tariffs on EU imports may shift procurement towards AMD’s U.S.-produced chips, enhancing its competitive edge against European rivals.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), valued at USD 705 billion as of 27 July 2025, specialises in networking and storage semiconductors. Its fiscal Q2 2025 (ending 5 May 2025) revenue hit USD 12.5 billion, a 43% rise from USD 8.7 billion in 2024, bolstered by AI-driven demand. The trade deal could amplify Broadcom’s role in onshored supply chains, particularly as it integrates acquisitions like VMware to expand in enterprise software.
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) rounds out this group, with a market capitalisation of USD 120 billion as of 27 July 2025. Q3 FY2025 revenue (ending 30 May 2025) was USD 6.8 billion, up 82% from USD 3.7 billion the prior year, fuelled by memory chips for AI applications. Increased U.S. energy trade under the agreement may indirectly benefit Micron through expanded data centre builds powered by American energy sources.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), though headquartered in the Netherlands, maintains significant U.S. operations and could navigate the tariffs through its transatlantic footprint. With a market capitalisation of USD 360 billion as of 27 July 2025, ASML’s Q2 2025 revenue (ending 30 June 2025) was EUR 6.2 billion, down 10% from EUR 6.9 billion in 2024 due to cyclical demand, but its lithography equipment remains critical for semiconductor fabrication. The deal’s structure might pressure EU firms to increase U.S. partnerships, potentially stabilising ASML’s order book.
AI and Data Analytics Beneficiaries
Artificial intelligence firms stand to gain from enhanced U.S.-EU data flows and onshoring incentives. Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), with a market capitalisation of USD 60 billion as of 27 July 2025, reported Q2 2025 revenue (ending 30 June 2025) of USD 678 million, a 27% increase from USD 533 million in 2024. Its government segment, which includes defence contracts, grew 23% to USD 278 million, positioning Palantir to capitalise on the agreement’s military equipment provisions.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), formerly part of Yandex, focuses on cloud and AI services with a market capitalisation of USD 5.2 billion as of 27 July 2025. Limited public filings show Q1 2025 revenue of approximately USD 150 million, up from USD 120 million in 2024, based on company disclosures. The deal could facilitate Nebius’s expansion in Western markets by easing trade barriers for technology services, though its Russian origins warrant monitoring for geopolitical risks.
Energy and Electric Vehicle Innovators
The agreement’s commitment to EU purchases of U.S. energy directly supports alternative energy providers. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), valued at USD 700 billion as of 27 July 2025, extends beyond automobiles into energy storage. Q2 2025 revenue (ending 30 June 2025) totalled USD 25.5 billion, up 2% from USD 24.9 billion in 2024, with energy generation and storage revenue surging 100% to USD 3.0 billion. Tariffs on EU vehicles could reduce competition, while energy export clauses align with Tesla’s solar and battery operations.
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE), a smaller player in zinc-based batteries with a market capitalisation of USD 400 million as of 27 July 2025, reported Q1 2025 revenue (ending 31 March 2025) of USD 6.6 million, compared to USD 3.1 million in 2024. SEC filings indicate a pipeline of USD 13.5 billion in orders, which could accelerate under U.S. energy export incentives.
Oklo Inc. (OKLO), specialising in advanced nuclear reactors, held a market capitalisation of USD 1.2 billion as of 27 July 2025. As a recent public entity via SPAC merger in May 2024, its Q1 2025 financials are not fully reported, but company projections estimate 2026 revenue at USD 100 million from microreactor deployments. The deal’s energy focus may prioritise nuclear technology in EU purchases, given Oklo’s U.S.-based innovations.
Market Sentiment and Risks
Sentiment on platforms like X, derived from verified accounts as of 27 July 2025, leans positive towards these stocks, with discussions highlighting potential undervaluation amid onshoring benefits. For instance, semiconductor firms like NVIDIA and AMD are frequently cited for their AI exposure in trade-resilient narratives.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap (USD bn, 27 Jul 2025) | Q2 2025 Revenue (USD bn) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | NVDA | 3,100 | 26.0 (Q1 FY26) | 262 |
| Advanced Micro Devices | AMD | 226 | 5.8 | 9 |
| Broadcom | AVGO | 705 | 12.5 | 43 |
| Micron Technology | MU | 120 | 6.8 (Q3 FY25) | 82 |
| ASML Holding | ASML | 360 | 6.7 (EUR bn equiv.) | -10 |
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | 60 | 0.7 | 27 |
| Nebius Group | NBIS | 5.2 | 0.15 (Q1) | 25 |
| Tesla | TSLA | 700 | 25.5 | 2 |
| Eos Energy Enterprises | EOSE | 0.4 | 0.007 (Q1) | 113 |
| Oklo | OKLO | 1.2 | N/A | N/A |
While the agreement offers opportunities, risks include retaliatory measures and currency fluctuations. The euro strengthened 0.5% against the dollar on 28 July 2025 following the announcement, potentially affecting export competitiveness. Analyst forecasts from Bloomberg suggest a 15-20% upside for semiconductor stocks in the next 12 months, attributed to trade deal effects, though these remain contingent on implementation details.
References
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