Trump announces 100% tariff on imported semiconductors in 2025, boosting Intel (INTC) but raising costs for NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL)

The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and chips marks a seismic shift for the global technology supply chain, potentially accelerating the reshoring of manufacturing to the United States while imposing steep costs on firms reliant on overseas production. With exemptions carved out for companies committing to domestic fabrication, this policy could reshape competitive dynamics, favouring US-based players and prompting a wave of capital reallocations across the sector.

The Tariff Framework and Immediate Market Ripples

Under the proposed tariffs, set to apply to all foreign-made semiconductors, the levy aims to incentivise investment in American soil. Reports from sources like The Guardian and Bloomberg indicate that businesses pledging to build or expand US facilities would be spared, a move that has already triggered a scramble among global chipmakers. This nuanced approach—punishing imports while rewarding localisation—has led to divergent outcomes for industry heavyweights.

As of market close on 9 August 2025, Intel Corporation (INTC) shares settled at $19.95, up 0.91% from the previous close, reflecting investor confidence in its extensive US manufacturing footprint. Intel, with major fabrication plants in states like Oregon and Arizona, stands to benefit directly from the exemptions. In contrast, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), which depends heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for its advanced chips, saw its stock rise 1.07% to $182.70, possibly buoyed by speculation that partners like TSMC might accelerate US investments to secure carveouts.

Apple Inc. (AAPL), a key consumer of semiconductors, climbed 4.24% to $229.35, underscoring relief over potential exemptions for its supply chain partners. Apple’s ecosystem, intertwined with global foundries, could see mitigated impacts if suppliers like Foxconn commit to US builds, as highlighted in analyses from The New York Times. These price movements suggest the market is pricing in a bifurcated future: gains for those aligned with domestic production, and headwinds for laggards.

Broader Implications for Supply Chains and Costs

The tariffs threaten to disrupt an estimated $190 billion in annual semiconductor imports, according to estimates from Oxford Economics cited in recent web reports. This could translate into a 0.4% drag on US GDP and a 0.3% global hit by 2026, with ripple effects amplifying through sectors like consumer electronics and automotive. Memory chips, for instance, might face price hikes of up to 40%, while automotive semiconductors could see even steeper increases due to their commoditised nature.

For technology firms, the cost calculus is stark. Companies without US production commitments may encounter doubled input expenses, squeezing margins and forcing price adjustments on end products. Bloomberg notes that this could elevate the cost of electronics and household goods, potentially dampening consumer demand in an already inflationary environment. Yet, the policy’s proponents argue it bolsters national security by reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly from Asia, where geopolitical tensions simmer.

Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities

• Foundries and Fabricators: Pure-play foundries like TSMC and Samsung, dominant in advanced node production, face the toughest choices. A 100% tariff could erode their US market share unless they ramp up American facilities—TSMC’s Arizona plant expansion, already underway, might accelerate under this pressure.
• Design Houses: Firms like NVIDIA and AMD, which outsource manufacturing, could see design costs inflate indirectly. Analyst sentiment from sources like CNBC suggests a “hold” on such stocks until exemption details clarify.
• Downstream Integrators: Apple and Dell, reliant on imported components, may push suppliers towards compliance, but startups— as discussed in Medium analyses from Engine—could suffer most, with hardware costs surging up to 80% and innovation timelines extending.

Valuation Shifts and Forward-Looking Metrics

Examining live ticker data as of 9 August 2025 reveals telling valuation divergences. Intel’s forward P/E ratio stands at 20.57, with expected EPS of $0.97, signalling a recovery trajectory bolstered by its domestic advantages. Its price-to-book of 0.89 suggests undervaluation relative to assets, potentially attracting value investors amid the tariff tailwinds.

NVIDIA, trading at a forward P/E of 44.34 and EPS forecast of $4.12, commands a premium for its AI dominance, but the tariff introduces uncertainty. Its 50-day average price of $159.21 and a 14.75% gain over that period highlight resilience, yet analysts at Bloomberg maintain a “strong buy” rating of 1.4, tempered by trade risks.

Apple’s metrics are equally robust: a forward P/E of 27.60 and EPS projection of $8.31, with a “buy” rating of 1.9. The stock’s 10.98% rise over the 50-day average to $206.67 underscores market optimism that its lobbying power and supplier networks will secure exemptions.

These figures, sourced from Nasdaq real-time data, illustrate how the tariffs could widen the gap between US-centric firms and their global peers. Historical comparisons show Intel’s shares down 27.6% from their 52-week high, a steeper discount than NVIDIA’s marginal 0.64% dip, hinting at tariff-induced volatility.

Analyst Forecasts and Market Sentiment

Consensus forecasts from firms like Oxford Economics project a mixed outlook: while short-term disruptions loom, long-term US semiconductor output could surge 15–20% by 2030 under aggressive reshoring. Analyst-led models from CNBC estimate that exempted companies might see revenue boosts of 5–10% through protected market share, though global trade tensions could shave 2–3% off sector growth.

Sentiment from verified sources remains cautiously optimistic. Bloomberg reports “strong buy” ratings for NVIDIA, citing AI demand outweighing tariff risks, while Intel garners a “hold” amid restructuring efforts. Posts on X reflect broader investor buzz, with some users highlighting potential 80% cost surges for non-exempt firms, though these are inconclusive and echo professional analyses from The Star, which warn of supply chain shocks for Asian exporters.

Strategic Responses and Long-Term Outlook

In response, companies are already pivoting. Intel’s ongoing $20 billion investment in US fabs positions it as a tariff winner, potentially capturing overflow from import-dependent rivals. NVIDIA’s partnerships might evolve, with increased stakes in domestic alternatives like Intel’s foundry services.

For investors, the tariffs underscore a broader theme: geopolitical risks amplifying the premium on self-sufficiency. While immediate market gains reflect exemption hopes, the true test lies in execution—delays or broader trade wars could invert these upsides. As one wry observer might note, in the chip game, tariffs are the ultimate etch-a-sketch, redrawing supply lines with a single shake.

Ultimately, this policy could catalyse a renaissance in American manufacturing, but at the cost of higher prices and strained alliances. Investors would do well to monitor exemption lists and capital expenditure announcements, as these will dictate the winners in a newly fortified semiconductor landscape.

References

• The Guardian. (2025, August 6). Trump tariffs on chips and semiconductors announced. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/06/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors
• Bloomberg. (2025, August 6). Trump plans 100% tariff on chips with carveout for Apple, others. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/trump-plans-100-tariff-on-chips-with-carveout-for-apple-others
• The New York Times. (2025, August 6). Trump chip tariffs reshape semiconductor landscape. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/technology/trump-chip-tariffs-semiconductors.html
• BBC News. (2025). Technology tariffs and global market impact. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly3r664q1eo
• CNBC. (2025, August 5). Trump’s semiconductor tariffs evaluated. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html
• The Star. (2025, August 8). Shockwaves from semiconductor tariffs. https://thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/08/08/semiconductor-tariffshock
• The New York Times. (2025). Live updates: Trump news and policy actions. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08/06/us/trump-news
• Market Minute. (2025, August 7). Tech markets rally amid tariff exemptions. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-8-7-trumps-tariff-gambit-chip-exemptions-spark-tech-rally-amid-broader-trade-tensions
• Engine Advocacy Foundation. (2025). The impact of semiconductor tariffs on U.S. startups. https://engineadvocacyfoundation.medium.com/the-impact-of-semiconductor-tariffs-on-u-s-startups-aadb07fcc1ff
• Stocks Down Under. (2025). Trump’s 100% chip tariff—winners and losers. https://stocksdownunder.com/trumps-100-chip-tariff
• X.com. (2025). Posts regarding semiconductor tariffs: https://x.com/burrytracker/status/1911507285311889887, https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1813671930085490962, https://x.com/ChadBown/status/1412407476801179649, https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/1911044807960502520, https://x.com/ShangguanJiewen/status/1851064828875448643