Pharvaris N.V. (PHVS), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, is developing deucrictibant, a first-in-class oral bradykinin B2 receptor antagonist for the treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE). This report assesses the investment opportunity presented by PHVS, considering its innovative approach to HAE treatment, potential market disruption, and upcoming clinical milestones.
Executive Summary
We initiate coverage on Pharvaris (PHVS) with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $42.00. Our valuation is based on a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model of future deucrictibant sales, incorporating probabilities of success for ongoing clinical trials. Key catalysts include topline data from the pivotal RAPIDe-3 Phase 3 trial (expected Q4 2025) and subsequent New Drug Application (NDA) submission. While acknowledging the inherent risks in clinical-stage biotech investments, we believe PHVS offers a compelling risk-reward profile given the potential to address significant unmet needs in the HAE market.
Industry Overview
Hereditary angioedema (HAE) is a rare genetic disorder characterized by recurrent, unpredictable episodes of swelling (angioedema) in various parts of the body. This debilitating condition affects approximately 1 in 50,000 individuals globally.1 The current HAE market is dominated by injectable therapies, creating a significant opportunity for convenient oral treatments. The global HAE therapeutics market was valued at approximately $4.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $6.8 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.7%.2
Company Analysis
Pharvaris’ lead product candidate, deucrictibant, offers a potential advantage over existing therapies through its oral route of administration. This addresses the limitations of current injectable treatments, improving patient compliance and quality of life. The company is pursuing both on-demand treatment for acute HAE attacks and prophylactic (preventative) therapy with extended-release formulations. Currently, PHVS generates no product revenue, relying on cash reserves and financing to fund operations.
Investment Thesis
Our investment thesis rests on the following key pillars:
- First-in-Class Oral Therapy: Deucrictibant addresses a significant unmet need in the HAE market by offering an oral alternative to injectables, potentially capturing a substantial share of the growing market.
- Strong Clinical Data: Early clinical trials have demonstrated deucrictibant’s efficacy and safety profile, supporting its potential for regulatory approval and market adoption. Positive data from the RAPIDe-3 trial could serve as a major catalyst for share price appreciation.3
- Experienced Management Team: Pharvaris is led by a seasoned team with a proven track record in drug development and commercialization, enhancing the likelihood of successful execution.
Valuation & Forecasts
We have employed a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model to value Pharvaris. Our base-case assumptions include peak deucrictibant sales of €1.1B by 2030, a 15% discount rate, and probabilities of success reflecting the remaining clinical and regulatory hurdles.
| Scenario | Probability | Peak Sales (€B) | Valuation ($/share) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 60% | 1.1 | 42.00 |
| Bull Case | 25% | 1.5 | 55.00 |
| Bear Case | 15% | 0.2 | 11.00 |
Our 12-month price target of $42.00 represents a weighted average of these scenarios and implies a significant upside from the current share price.
Risks
Key risks to our investment thesis include:
- Clinical Trial Risk: Failure to achieve positive results in the RAPIDe-3 trial would significantly impact our valuation.
- Regulatory Risk: Delays or rejection by regulatory authorities could hinder the commercialization timeline.
- Competition: The HAE market is becoming increasingly competitive with the emergence of new therapies.
- Market Access and Reimbursement: Securing favourable reimbursement from payers will be critical for commercial success.
Recommendation
Despite the inherent risks, we believe the potential rewards of investing in Pharvaris outweigh the downsides. The company’s innovative approach to HAE treatment, coupled with upcoming catalysts and a strong management team, positions it for significant growth. Therefore, we recommend a Buy rating on PHVS with a 12-month price target of $42.00.
References:
1 Longhurst, Hilary, and Jonathan Bernstein. “Hereditary angioedema: current and future treatment strategies.” Clinical and experimental immunology 207.2 (2022): 169-184.
2 “Hereditary Angioedema Therapeutics Market – Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 – 2028)”. Mordor Intelligence.
3 Pharvaris N.V. SEC Filings. https://investors.pharvaris.com/financials-presentations/sec-filings
