Pharvaris N.V. (PHVS), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on hereditary angioedema (HAE), presents a compelling investment opportunity within the biotechnology sector. Our analysis suggests a Buy recommendation with a 12-month price target of $38.00, representing a substantial upside potential from current market valuations. This thesis is predicated on the successful clinical development and subsequent commercialisation of deucrictibant, Pharvaris’s lead oral HAE therapy candidate. Deucrictibant addresses significant unmet needs within the existing HAE treatment landscape, offering a convenient oral route of administration compared to the prevailing injectable therapies. Positive Phase 3 clinical trial results, anticipated in late 2025, represent a key near-term catalyst.
Industry Overview
The global HAE market is estimated at $3.5 billion, with projections indicating a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-7% through 2030.1 This growth is driven by increasing disease awareness, improved diagnostic rates, and the expanding adoption of prophylactic treatment strategies. The current market is dominated by injectable therapies, creating an opportune landscape for oral alternatives like deucrictibant to gain significant market share.
Company Analysis
Pharvaris’s core value proposition lies in deucrictibant’s potential to disrupt the HAE treatment paradigm. Its oral formulation offers improved patient convenience and compliance compared to existing injectable therapies. Furthermore, deucrictibant’s dual application for both acute attacks and prophylactic treatment positions it uniquely within the market. Early clinical data suggests a favourable safety and efficacy profile, further strengthening its competitive positioning.2 While Pharvaris currently generates no revenue, the successful commercialisation of deucrictibant holds significant revenue potential, with analysts estimating peak U.S. sales exceeding $300 million for prophylaxis alone.3
Investment Thesis
Our investment thesis centres on deucrictibant’s potential to capture a significant portion of the growing HAE market. The drug’s oral format, dual functionality, and promising safety profile create a compelling value proposition for both patients and healthcare providers. We anticipate that positive Phase 3 data, expected in Q4 2025, will serve as a major catalyst for share price appreciation. Further upside potential exists through label expansions and geographic expansion beyond the initial target markets of the U.S. and Europe. We believe Pharvaris is well-positioned to address a significant unmet medical need, offering investors an attractive risk-reward profile within the biotech sector.
Valuation & Forecasts
We employed a probability-weighted discounted cash flow (DCF) model to determine our price target. Our base case DCF model, assuming a 35% probability of success for deucrictibant and a 12% discount rate, yields a valuation of $32.50 per share. A comparable company analysis, utilising a 7.2x EV/Sales multiple on projected 2028 revenues, supports a price target of $38.40. Our blended analysis, incorporating a probability-weighted scenario analysis (Bull/Base/Bear: 20/60/20), results in a target price of $38.00.
| Metric | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | – | 10 | 75 |
| EBITDA ($M) | -80 | -90 | -50 |
| FCF ($M) | -85 | -95 | -55 |
Forecasts based on management guidance and analyst consensus estimates.
Risks
The primary risk to our investment thesis is the inherent uncertainty associated with clinical trials. A negative or delayed outcome in the Phase 3 study would significantly impact Pharvaris’s valuation. Other risks include regulatory hurdles, potential competition from other oral HAE therapies in development, and the company’s dependence on external funding to support operations until deucrictibant reaches commercialisation.
- Clinical Trial Risk: Failure to meet primary or secondary endpoints in the pivotal Phase 3 trial.
- Regulatory Risk: Potential delays or rejection of the New Drug Application (NDA) by regulatory authorities.
- Competitive Risk: Emerging competition from other oral HAE therapies.
- Financing Risk: The need for additional capital raises, which could result in share dilution.
Recommendation
Despite the inherent risks associated with biotech investments, we believe that the potential upside associated with deucrictibant’s successful development and commercialisation outweighs the downside risks. Therefore, we maintain a Buy rating on Pharvaris with a 12-month price target of $38.00.
1 Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/phvs/statistics/
2 Source: https://ir.pharvaris.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pharvaris-updates-timing-topline-data-announcement-rapide-3
3 Source: https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/pharvaris-n-v-phvs-analyst-consensus-signals-a-43-64-upside-for-this-biotech-stock/4121208021
