Nebius $NBIS Aims for 1GW US Data Centres by 2026, Targets $8B Revenue

The data centre industry is witnessing unprecedented demand, driven by the exponential growth of cloud computing and artificial intelligence workloads. At the forefront of this trend, Nebius Group (NBIS) has outlined ambitious plans to scale its infrastructure in the United States, targeting significant capacity additions by the end of 2026. With a projected capacity of 1 gigawatt (GW), the company could position itself as a major player in the AI infrastructure space, potentially unlocking substantial revenue streams. This analysis delves into the feasibility of these targets, the financial implications, and the broader market context.

Expansion Plans and Capacity Targets

Nebius Group has announced a strategic push into the US market, with new data centre developments underway in key locations such as New Jersey and Missouri, alongside plans for additional facilities in 2026. The company has set a target of achieving 1 GW of capacity by the end of 2026, a significant leap from its current guidance of 100 megawatts (MW) by the close of 2025. The New Jersey facility alone, expected to be partially operational by mid-2025, is slated to contribute up to 300 MW in phased expansions. This aggressive timeline reflects both the urgency of meeting demand and the competitive pressures within the sector.

Market reports indicate that the North American data centre market is experiencing robust growth, with supply struggling to keep pace with demand. A recent study by CBRE highlighted that top markets, including those in New Jersey, are seeing unprecedented leasing activity in 2024 and 2025. This backdrop lends credence to the strategic focus on such regions, where proximity to major business hubs and robust power infrastructure offers a competitive edge.

Revenue Potential and Utilisation Assumptions

Should Nebius achieve its 1 GW capacity target by the end of 2026, the revenue potential is considerable. Industry benchmarks suggest that data centres operating at high utilisation rates can generate significant income per MW. Assuming an 80% utilisation rate, a figure often cited as achievable for well-positioned facilities, and applying conservative revenue estimates of $8 million per MW annually (based on current cloud and colocation pricing trends), the company could theoretically approach $8 billion in annual revenue by 2027. This aligns with some optimistic projections circulating among financial analysts on platforms like X, where enthusiasm for NBIS as a growth story is evident, notably from accounts such as @thexcapitalist.

However, several caveats must be considered. First, achieving an 80% utilisation rate is not guaranteed, particularly for new facilities that require time to onboard clients. Industry averages often hover closer to 65–70% in the initial years of operation. Second, the cost of scaling to 1 GW is immense, encompassing land acquisition, construction, and energy procurement. Nebius has not yet disclosed detailed capital expenditure plans for 2025 and 2026, though historical data from its investor relations updates suggest a disciplined approach to funding growth. For context, the company reported a capital expenditure of approximately $200 million in Q4 2024 (October–December) for initial US expansions, a figure likely to escalate as projects accelerate.

Market Dynamics and Competitive Risks

The data centre sector is not without its challenges. Rising construction costs and labour shortages, as noted in recent industry analyses, are straining project timelines across the board. Additionally, power availability remains a critical bottleneck, particularly for hyperscale facilities targeting GW-scale capacity. New Jersey, while a hub for data centres, faces regulatory scrutiny over energy consumption, which could delay or limit expansions. Missouri, on the other hand, offers more favourable conditions with lower power costs, but lacks the connectivity advantages of the East Coast.

Competitive pressures also loom large. Major players such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud dominate the market, with established client bases and economies of scale. Nebius, while carving a niche in AI infrastructure, must differentiate through performance and pricing. The company’s custom-designed facilities, as outlined in its March 2025 announcement, aim to optimise efficiency, but the proof will lie in execution.

Financial Projections and Valuation Considerations

To provide a clearer picture of the financial outlook, the table below outlines potential revenue scenarios based on varying utilisation rates at the 1 GW capacity target for 2027, assuming full build-out by late 2026.

These figures are speculative and hinge on market conditions, client uptake, and operational efficiency. For comparison, Nebius guided for $750 million in revenue for 2025 with 100 MW of capacity, implying a revenue per MW of approximately $7.5 million at current utilisation levels. The slight uptick to $8 million per MW in the table accounts for expected pricing power as demand intensifies.

From a valuation perspective, if Nebius approaches $6–8 billion in revenue by 2027, and assuming a sales multiple of 5 (consistent with peers in the cloud infrastructure space), the company could command a market capitalisation of $30–40 billion. This is a far cry from its current valuation, though exact figures for Q2 2025 (April–June) are pending release at the time of writing.

Conclusion

Nebius Group’s data centre expansion in the US represents a bold bet on the future of cloud and AI infrastructure. The target of 1 GW capacity by the end of 2026 is ambitious, and while the revenue potential is substantial, it is not without execution risks. Investors must weigh the company’s ability to navigate construction challenges, secure power resources, and attract high-value clients against a backdrop of fierce competition. For now, the trajectory appears promising, supported by a market desperate for capacity, but the path to $8 billion in revenue remains a steep climb.

References

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• Commercial Observer. (2025, July 25). Data Center Development Is Starting to Monopolize Construction Resources. Retrieved from https://commercialobserver.com/2025/07/data-center-construction-costs
• Data Insights Market. (n.d.). New Jersey Data Center Market. Retrieved from https://www.datainsightsmarket.com/reports/new-jersey-data-center-market-12423
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• JLL. (2025, May). 2025 Global Data Center Outlook. Retrieved from https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/research/data-center-outlook-2025
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• Synergy Research Group. (2025, June 19). US Data Center Market Grows by 19% YoY, Revenue Per MW Averages $7.5M–$9M. Retrieved from https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/us-data-center-market-june2025
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