Trump signals potential federal cannabis rescheduling and banking reform, unlocking $50B market by 2028

The prospect of evolving federal policies on cannabis under a potential second Trump administration has ignited fresh discussions among investors, particularly regarding expanded adult access to regulated products and enhanced state-level autonomy in legalization efforts. As the United States navigates a patchwork of state laws amid persistent federal restrictions, any shift towards deregulation could reshape the multibillion-dollar industry, unlocking opportunities for growth while addressing safety and economic concerns.

Policy Signals and Historical Context

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump’s administration adopted a mixed stance on cannabis. Notably, the 2018 Farm Bill, signed into law, descheduled certain hemp-derived products from the Controlled Substances Act, effectively legalising industrial hemp and paving the way for a surge in CBD markets. This move represented an early nod towards reform, contrasting with stricter enforcement rhetoric elsewhere. Fast-forward to campaign rhetoric in 2024, where indications emerged of support for reclassifying marijuana at the federal level, potentially moving it to Schedule III, which would acknowledge medical benefits and ease research barriers.

Analysts point to this as a foundation for broader changes. A report from Reuters in January 2025 highlighted expectations for federal rescheduling, legislative adjustments, and litigation shifts under a renewed Trump leadership. Such reforms could dismantle longstanding hurdles, including banking restrictions that have plagued cannabis businesses due to federal illegality. By prioritising state freedoms, policies might empower individual states to tailor legalisation frameworks, fostering innovation in safe, tested products for adult consumers.

Implications for Adult Access and Product Safety

Central to these discussions is the emphasis on broadening adult access to safe cannabis products. Currently, 24 states have legalised recreational marijuana as of mid-2025, with others permitting medical use, yet federal prohibition limits interstate commerce and imposes heavy taxation under IRS Section 280E. A policy pivot towards deregulation could standardise safety protocols, ensuring products are free from contaminants and accurately labelled – a critical factor given reports of unregulated markets contributing to public health risks.

Investor sentiment, as gauged by sources like Marijuana Moment in June 2025, reflects optimism tempered by caution. Credible outlets report that industry stakeholders anticipate relief from debanking issues, where financial institutions shy away from cannabis-related accounts. This could lead to improved capital access, enabling companies to scale operations and invest in quality control. For instance, a February 2025 analysis from Canndelta suggested that rescheduling alone might introduce tax breaks and banking reforms, potentially boosting sector revenues by 15–20% annually, based on analyst models projecting normalised operations.

Economic and Market Impacts

The cannabis sector, valued at over $30 billion in U.S. sales in 2023 according to historical data from Statista, stands to benefit significantly from enhanced state autonomy. States like California and Colorado have demonstrated robust economic contributions through taxation and job creation, with Colorado alone generating over $2 billion in cumulative tax revenue since 2014. Granting more freedom could accelerate similar models in conservative-leaning states, diversifying the market and reducing reliance on black-market alternatives.

From an investment perspective, this theme illuminates opportunities in ancillary services such as compliance software, packaging, and testing labs. A labelled analyst forecast from PwC’s 2024 cannabis report, extended into 2025 assumptions, estimates that full federal legalisation – or even partial reforms – could propel the market to $50 billion by 2028, driven by adult-use expansions. However, risks persist: any policy U-turn, as seen in the rescission of the Obama-era Cole Memorandum in 2018, could heighten enforcement uncertainties.

• Banking Reforms: Safe Banking Act proposals, stalled in previous sessions, might gain traction, allowing cannabis firms to access traditional loans and reduce cash-only operations.
• Interstate Commerce: Enabling cross-state trade could streamline supply chains, lowering costs and enhancing product variety for consumers.
• Research Advancements: Schedule III status would facilitate clinical studies, potentially validating therapeutic claims and attracting pharmaceutical investments.

Challenges and Counterarguments

Critics argue that rapid deregulation might overlook public health safeguards, particularly regarding youth access and impaired driving. A Wikipedia summary of first-term policies notes the administration’s opposition to easing federal laws, including budget proposals in 2021 to remove state medical marijuana protections. Yet, evolving positions, as detailed in a Politico article from September 2024, suggest a pragmatic shift to appeal to younger demographics, balancing freedom with regulations on public use and odour control.

Sentiment from verified financial sources, such as a Reuters litigation overview in January 2025, indicates cautious bullishness among cannabis equities. Without live ticker data, historical trends show multi-year volatility, with sector ETFs experiencing 20–30% swings tied to policy announcements. Investors should monitor rulemaking processes, as advised by McDermott Will & Emery in March 2025, to navigate the evolving landscape.

Strategic Considerations for Investors

For those eyeing the sector, diversification across established players in states with mature markets offers resilience. Analyst-led models from firms like New Frontier Data project that states granted more legalisation freedom could see GDP contributions rise by 1–2% in cannabis-dependent economies. Dry humour aside, betting on policy reform is akin to planting seeds in uncertain soil – promising yields if the climate cooperates, but prone to regulatory frosts.

In summary, a new era emphasising adult access to safe products and state-led legalisation could catalyse transformative growth in the cannabis industry. While historical precedents provide a roadmap, the path forward hinges on administrative actions post-2025. Investors would do well to track legislative developments, weighing potential upsides against enforcement risks.

References

• Canndelta. (2025, February). Why Trump’s cannabis reform is a game changer for the cannabis industry. https://canndelta.com/why-trumps-cannabis-reform-is-a-game-changer-for-the-cannabis-industry/
• Extract Labs. (2025). Trump’s impact on the cannabis industry. https://www.extractlabs.com/press/trump-cannabis-industry-2025/
• Last Prisoner Project. (2025). The future of cannabis under a new Trump administration. https://www.lastprisonerproject.org/the-future-of-cannabis-under-a-new-trump-administration
• Marijuana Moment. (2025). Various articles from June–July. https://www.marijuanamoment.net
• McDermott Will & Emery. (2025, March). Cannabis reform under Trump. https://www.mwe.com/insights/cannabis-reform-under-trump/
• MPP. (n.d.). Trump marijuana policy. https://www.mpp.org/federal/trump-marijuana-policy/
• Politico. (2024, September 15). Donald Trump’s shifting stance on marijuana legalisation. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/15/donald-trump-marijuana-legalization-00179205
• Reuters. (2025, January 9). Cannabis and Trump 2.0 – 2025 and beyond. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/cannabis-trump-20-2025-beyond-2025-01-09/
• Statista. (2023). US cannabis market sales data. Historical reference.
• USA Today. (2025, August 11). Trump considering reclassifying marijuana. https://usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/11/trump-considering-reclassifying-marijuana/85610334007
• Wikipedia. (n.d.). Cannabis policy of the first Donald Trump administration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_policy_of_the_first_Donald_Trump_administration
• LeafyDoc. (2025). 2025 cannabis policy reform. https://leafydoc.com/2025-cannabis-policy-reform
• X/Twitter Accounts (2025). Aggregated commentary and relevant updates:
  • https://x.com/PLegalization
  • https://x.com/shadddales
  • https://x.com/yashar
  • https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper
  • https://x.com/njcounsel
  • https://x.com/ErichP