Arm Holdings Set to Dominate 2030 Market, Overtaking AMD as Tech Giants Shift

Hedge fund Coatue’s bold forecast for the world’s largest companies by 2030 has sparked intense debate among investors, particularly with its omission of established giants like Alphabet and Apple, alongside chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, while positioning Arm Holdings as a standout performer set to eclipse its rivals.

Coatue’s Vision: A Shift in Tech Dominance

Coatue Management, overseeing some $70 billion in assets, has outlined a scenario where the tech landscape undergoes a profound transformation by the end of the decade. In this projection, the absence of Alphabet—currently valued at over $2.3 trillion as of market close on 2 August 2025—signals a potential erosion of its search and advertising stronghold. Analysts at firms like Bernstein have echoed this sentiment in recent notes, suggesting that intensifying competition in AI-driven search could cap Alphabet’s growth trajectory, with forward P/E ratios already compressing to 21.2 from peaks above 25 in prior years. This exclusion implies Coatue anticipates a deceleration in Alphabet’s revenue expansion, which has averaged 15% annually over the trailing five years, potentially falling short of the hyper-growth needed to maintain top-tier status amid rising challengers.

Similarly, Apple’s omission from the top 40 raises questions about the sustainability of its hardware-centric model. With a market capitalisation exceeding $3.1 trillion today, Apple’s shares have traded at a premium, boasting a forward P/E of 24.4, yet Coatue’s forecast hints at vulnerabilities in its ecosystem. Historical data shows Apple’s revenue growth slowing from 33% in fiscal 2021 to around 8% in the most recent trailing twelve months, per SEC filings up to Q2 2025. Sentiment from Morgan Stanley analysts, rated as a cautious buy with a 1.9 score on aggregate platforms, points to saturation in iPhone sales and regulatory pressures on app store dominance as factors that could prevent Apple from scaling to the multi-trillion heights required for top rankings by 2030.

Advanced Micro Devices finds itself sidelined in Coatue’s list, a stark contrast to its recent surge. AMD’s stock has climbed 39% over the past 200 days, closing at $171.70 on 2 August 2025, driven by data centre demand. However, the prediction underscores concerns over its ability to fend off competitors in the AI chip arena. Trailing EPS of $1.37 reflects solid progress from losses in 2020, but forward estimates peg growth at 3.98 for the current year, potentially insufficient against the backdrop of custom silicon advances. Verified sentiment from Jefferies, maintaining a buy rating but warning of margin pressures, aligns with Coatue’s apparent view that AMD’s x86 dominance might wane as alternative architectures gain traction.

Arm Holdings’ Ascendancy: Overtaking the Old Guard

Central to Coatue’s narrative is Arm Holdings’ projected dominance, overtaking AMD and emerging as one of the strongest performers in the top echelons. This chipset designer’s architecture, already powering 99% of smartphones, is poised for explosive growth in servers and AI inference, according to the hedge fund’s thesis. While current market data for Arm isn’t detailed here, its trajectory contrasts sharply with AMD’s, where Arm’s licensing model could yield higher margins—potentially exceeding AMD’s 25% operating margins reported in Q1 2025. Coatue’s emphasis on Arm suggests a belief in its scalability, with model-based forecasts from firms like Goldman Sachs projecting Arm’s revenue to triple by 2030, fuelled by adoption in hyperscale data centres.

Arm’s projected overtake of AMD highlights a broader pivot towards energy-efficient, customisable designs over traditional CPU heavyweights. Historical parallels abound: AMD’s market cap has ballooned from under $10 billion in 2016 to $278 billion today, yet Coatue implies this run may plateau. In contrast, Arm’s ecosystem, bolstered by partnerships with Nvidia and Qualcomm, positions it for outsized gains. Sentiment from Barclays analysts, labelling Arm a top pick with potential 40% upside, reinforces this, citing its role in the AI boom where inference markets could dwarf training by a factor of ten, as per Futurum Research estimates.

Implications for Investor Portfolios

Investors digesting Coatue’s outlook must weigh the risks of clinging to yesterday’s winners. Alphabet’s 7.6% rise over the past 200 days pales against the sector’s AI-fuelled rallies, while Apple’s -8.7% dip in the same period underscores market doubts. AMD’s robust 24.6% gain in the last 50 days offers short-term allure, but Coatue’s exclusion warns of longer-term headwinds. Arm’s projected strength, meanwhile, could redraw semiconductor battle lines, with its designs enabling cost-effective AI deployments that sideline their more power-hungry alternatives.

• Coatue’s list prioritises agile innovators over incumbents, betting on AI and crypto disruptions.
• Exclusions like Alphabet and Apple suggest their moats—search and devices—may erode faster than anticipated.
• Arm’s rise implies a 5-7x market cap expansion from current levels, per extrapolated models.

Navigating the 2030 Horizon

Coatue’s prediction isn’t without controversy; it assumes seismic shifts in tech adoption, from widespread AI integration to blockchain’s mainstreaming. Yet, it amplifies a narrative where adaptability trumps scale. For Alphabet, a trailing book value of $29.98 per share supports a stable base, but Coatue envisions challengers like OpenAI-backed entities chipping away at its $704 billion projected 2030 revenue—far below what’s needed for top billing. Apple’s $692 billion forecast similarly falls short in a world dominated by software ecosystems.

AMD’s story is one of cyclical peaks; its 43.2 current year P/E reflects optimism, but Coatue’s snub points to a future where Arm’s IP licensing model captures more value. Dark wit might note that in the chip wars, being overtaken isn’t just about speed—it’s about not being left in the dust of innovation. Investors aligned with Coatue’s view might pivot towards Arm proxies, eyeing sentiment from Coatue itself, which has stakes in related crypto and AI ventures.

As markets closed on 2 August 2025 with Alphabet down 1.5%, Apple off 2.5%, and AMD sliding 2.6%, the session’s moves subtly nod to broader uncertainties. Coatue’s forecast, detailed in their June 2025 East Meets West conference presentation (as reported by Yahoo Finance on 1 July 2025), serves as a clarion call: the top 40 by 2030 may belong to those rewriting the rules, not defending them.

References

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Kindig, B. (@Beth_Kindig). (2023, July 5). Coatue is a hedge fund managing $70B+. I like to track their buys/sells as they are tech-focused. This quarter, they exited NVDA and AMD… [Post]. X. https://x.com/Beth_Kindig/status/1676369401866600449

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