Key Takeaways
- Satellite IoT revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2025 to 2030, driven by demand for ubiquitous global connectivity.
- Critical growth drivers include satellite broadband for underserved areas and direct-to-device services, which enable standard smartphones to connect directly to space-based networks.
- AST SpaceMobile is a prominent player positioned to leverage these trends, reflected in a significant stock price increase ahead of planned satellite launches and commercialisation.
- Despite the optimistic outlook, the sector contends with challenges including substantial capital investment, regulatory complexities, and intensifying competition among over 100 vendors.
Satellite IoT revenues are poised for robust expansion, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of 23.8% from 2025 to 2030, according to Omdia Research. This trajectory underscores a sector on the cusp of significant transformation, driven by advancements in connectivity that extend far beyond traditional terrestrial networks.
The Growth Engine: Unpacking Satellite IoT’s Momentum
At its core, this forecast reflects the escalating demand for reliable, ubiquitous connectivity in an increasingly digital world. Satellite IoT, which enables devices to communicate via space-based infrastructure, is evolving from a niche solution for remote areas into a mainstream enabler of global data exchange. Omdia’s outlook suggests revenues could balloon substantially over the next five years, fuelled by applications in agriculture, logistics, environmental monitoring, and beyond. What makes this particularly compelling is the integration of satellite systems with existing IoT ecosystems, reducing latency and expanding coverage to regions where ground-based networks falter.
Consider the arithmetic: starting from a baseline in 2025, a 23.8% CAGR implies revenues multiplying by a factor of roughly three by the decade’s end. This is not mere optimism; it is grounded in tangible shifts, such as the proliferation of low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations that promise faster data transmission than their geostationary predecessors. MarketsandMarkets echoes this sentiment with its own projections for the satellite non-terrestrial network (NTN) market, estimating growth from $0.56 billion in 2025 to $2.79 billion by 2030 at an even steeper 38% CAGR. The discrepancy in rates highlights varying scopes—Omdia’s focus on IoT specifically might temper the pace compared to broader NTN figures—but both point to a sector heating up.
Yet, growth forecasts like these often mask the underlying risks. Satellite deployments require colossal upfront capital, and regulatory hurdles can delay launches. Still, the numbers suggest investors are betting on execution, with the promise of recurring revenues from data subscriptions outweighing the initial outlays.
Spotlight on Promising Services: Broadband and Direct-to-Device
Within this landscape, satellite broadband emerges as a linchpin, offering high-speed internet to underserved populations and enterprises. It is not just about bridging the digital divide; it is about creating new revenue streams in areas where fibre optics or 5G towers are economically unviable. Omdia singles out this service for its lucrative potential, projecting it as a key driver of the overall IoT revenue surge.
Even more transformative is direct-to-device smartphone communication, which allows standard mobile phones to connect directly to satellites without specialised hardware. This innovation could redefine emergency response, maritime operations, and even everyday consumer use in remote locales. Imagine hikers in the Scottish Highlands sending texts via satellite when cellular signals vanish—it is the sort of capability that turns “what if” into “why not.” Omdia’s emphasis here is spot on: these services are not just additive; they are disruptive, potentially siphoning market share from traditional telecoms while opening doors to billions in untapped addressable markets.
To quantify the opportunity, Goldman Sachs has modelled the LEO communications market reaching $108 billion by 2035 in its base case, with an upside scenario ballooning to $457 billion. While this encompasses more than just IoT, it illustrates the scale at play. Direct-to-device technology, in particular, could capture a slice of the global smartphone user base, estimated at over 6 billion, by providing seamless failover connectivity.
Challenges and Competitive Dynamics
Of course, no forecast is without caveats. The satellite IoT arena is becoming increasingly crowded, with over 100 vendors vying for dominance, as noted in IoT Analytics’ Satellite IoT Market Report 2025–2030. Fragmentation could lead to price wars, squeezing margins even as revenues grow. Moreover, spectrum allocation remains a contentious issue, with governments worldwide grappling to balance commercial interests and national security.
That said, the capabilities Omdia highlights—think real-time asset tracking for global supply chains or remote health monitoring in developing regions—could mitigate these headwinds. Early movers stand to gain advantages, locking in partnerships with major telcos and governments.
Implications for AST SpaceMobile: A Case Study in Potential
Companies like AST SpaceMobile are at the forefront of this wave, positioning themselves to capitalise on these trends through innovative satellite constellations designed for direct cellular broadband. The firm’s focus on space-based networks accessible via unmodified smartphones aligns perfectly with Omdia’s spotlight on direct-to-device services, potentially accelerating its path to commercialisation.
Recent market reactions underscore this alignment, with the company’s valuation reflecting significant investor enthusiasm for its upcoming milestones. Key financial data and analyst ratings paint a picture of a company at an inflection point:
AST SpaceMobile: Key Financial Metrics and Forecasts
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Share Price (Recent) | $53.17 | Down from a recent high of $60.95 |
| 52-Week Range | $17.11 – $60.95 | Represents a 165% increase over the past 52 weeks |
| Market Capitalisation | ~ $18.5 billion | As of recent valuation |
| Analyst Price Targets | $63 (Deutsche Bank), $42 (Roth Capital) | Reflects positive sentiment on commercialisation path |
| Revenue Guidance (H2 2025) | $50–$75 million | Company guidance for initial commercial revenue |
| EPS (Trailing Twelve Months) | -1.98 | Reflects significant investment phase |
| Forward EPS (Analysts’ Estimate) | -0.71 | Indicates improving financial outlook |
| Price-to-Book Ratio | 22.15 | An elevated multiple suggesting high growth expectations |
The stock’s trajectory tells a story of inflection. From a 52-week low of $17.11, the climb has been fuelled by progress reports, including plans for five satellite launches in the next 6-9 months and a manufacturing ramp-up to six satellites per month. Roth Capital initiated coverage with a $42 target, praising the firm’s pioneering role in direct-to-device broadband. Such sentiment, labelled as “Buy” with an average rating of 1.9 on a scale where 1 is strong buy, suggests the market is pricing in substantial upside from the forecasted IoT growth.
Revenue Projections and Path to Profitability
Drilling into specifics, AST SpaceMobile has guided for $50-75 million in revenues in the second half of 2025, targeting commercial, government, and defence customers as its constellation deploys. This aligns with broader industry forecasts, positioning the company to capture a meaningful share of the expanding pie. Deutsche Bank’s estimates project revenues scaling to $1.8 billion by 2027, with EBITDA turning positive by 2026— a stark contrast to the trailing twelve-month EPS of -1.98, which reflects heavy investment in build-out.
For a forward-looking view, a model grounded in Omdia’s CAGR and AST’s current trajectory suggests revenues could hit $500 million by 2030 in a conservative scenario, assuming 10% market share of the projected IoT segment. This is speculative, of course, but it builds on company guidance and analyst consensus, with forward EPS estimates improving from -0.78 for the current year to -0.71.
To visualise the potential revaluation:
- Base case: A 23.8% sector CAGR translates to AST capturing accelerating revenues, potentially justifying a price-to-sales multiple expansion from today’s implied figure to 10-15x by 2027.
- Upside: If direct-to-device adoption exceeds expectations, shares could test $100+ within two years, per WalletInvestor’s technical prognosis of up to $79 in the near term.
- Risks: Delays in launches or competitive pressures could cap growth, keeping the price-to-book ratio at its elevated 22.15 without commensurate earnings.
Broader Market Context and Investor Considerations
The enthusiasm is not isolated. The satellite sector’s dynamism, with LEO satellites supplementing broadband in remote areas, as Goldman Sachs notes, sets the stage for exponential growth. AST SpaceMobile’s recent 211% rally from April to July 2025, detailed in Tickeron’s analysis, exemplifies how milestones like satellite deployments can ignite share prices.
For investors, this forecast from Omdia serves as a clarion call. It is not just about the numbers; it is about the paradigm shift towards space-enabled connectivity. With earnings updates looming—AST’s next quarterly business update is scheduled for 11 August 2025—investors should watch for confirmations of revenue ramps. In a market where terrestrial networks are reaching their limits, satellite IoT’s promise of transformation could indeed prove lucrative, if the execution matches the hype.
References
AST SpaceMobile. (2025, May 12). AST SpaceMobile Provides Business Update and First Quarter 2025 Results. Business Wire. Retrieved from https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250512355107/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Provides-Business-Update-and-First-Quarter-2025-Results
AST SpaceMobile. (2025, July 28). AST SpaceMobile to Provide Quarterly Business Update on August 11, 2025. Business Wire. Retrieved from https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250728732096/en/AST-SpaceMobile-to-Provide-Quarterly-Business-Update-on-August-11-2025
Investing.com. (2025, May 13). AST SpaceMobile Q1 2025 Slides: Satellite Network Nears Commercialization with $50-75M Revenue Target. Retrieved from https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/ast-spacemobile-q1-2025-slides-satellite-network-nears-commercialization-with-5075m-revenue-target-93CH-4040087
IoT Analytics. (n.d.). Satellite IoT Competitive Landscape 2024. Retrieved from https://iot-analytics.com/satellite-iot-competitive-landscape
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MarketsandMarkets. (n.d.). Satellite NTN Market by Component, Application, End-Use Industry & Region – Global Forecast to 2030. Retrieved from https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/satellite-ntn-market-185084281.html
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SpacAnpanman [@spacanpanman]. (2024, November 13). $ASTS Deutsche Bank analyst raises price target to $63… [Post]. X. https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1831278994970308875
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SpacAnpanman [@spacanpanman]. (2025, August 7). $ASTS Goldman Sachs LEO Comms Base Case Market TAM is $108bn by 2035 with the Upside Case $457bn… [Post]. X. https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1925578320420217053
StockSavvyShay [@StockSavvyShay]. (2025, February 25). $ASTS: 5 sats in 6-9 months… Ramp to 6 sats per month… [Post]. X. https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1861031025356513581
Tickeron. (2025, August 2). AST SpaceMobile’s 211% Rally: A Full Breakdown of ASTS’s April-July 2025 Surge. Retrieved from https://tickeron.com/blogs/ast-spacemobile-s-211-rally-a-full-breakdown-of-asts-s-april-july-2025-surge-11383
WalletInvestor. (n.d.). AST SpaceMobile Inc Stock Forecast, “ASTS” Stock Predicition. Retrieved from https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/asts-stock-prediction
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