- Analysts have significantly raised price targets on Pagaya Technologies, signalling confidence in its AI-driven lending platform and profitability outlook.
- Q2 2025 results showed revenue of $326.4 million and EPS of $0.64, both outperforming expectations and highlighting a 30% year-over-year revenue increase.
- Forward guidance for 2025 revenue has been revised upwards to as much as $1.325 billion, fuelled by record ABS issuances and expanded platform volume.
- While the stock remains below its 52-week high, consensus targets suggest potential upside, driven by AI efficiency and a broadened funding network.
- Risks include potential macroeconomic headwinds and intensifying competition from traditional lenders adopting similar technology approaches.
Analysts are piling into Pagaya Technologies with upgraded price targets, signalling robust confidence in the firm’s AI-driven lending platform amid a surge in revenue and profitability metrics for 2025. This wave of optimism, driven by recent quarterly beats and upward guidance revisions, underscores Pagaya’s potential to capitalise on expanding credit markets, even as broader economic headwinds loom.
Upgrades Reflect Accelerating Momentum
Several prominent research firms have recently lifted their sights on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: PGY), with price targets climbing sharply in response to the company’s second-quarter performance. B. Riley, for instance, has elevated its target from $46 to $54 while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting the firm’s scalable model in consumer and auto lending. Similarly, Citizens JMP has boosted its target from $26 to $35, retaining an Outperform stance, and Canaccord Genuity has moved from $28 to $36 with a continued Buy recommendation. These adjustments come on the heels of Pagaya’s Q2 2025 results, where revenue hit $326 million, surpassing expectations by a notable margin and marking a 30% year-over-year increase, according to data from Yahoo Finance as of 11 August 2025.
This isn’t isolated enthusiasm. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods has raised its target to $38 from $27, reiterating Outperform, while Oppenheimer has pushed to $44 from $33, also keeping Outperform. Benchmark has gone further, lifting to $48 from $42 with a Buy rating. Such consensus upgrades point to a shared view that Pagaya’s proprietary AI algorithms are not just efficient but increasingly indispensable in a lending landscape squeezed by rising interest rates and credit scrutiny.
Financial Performance Driving the Narrative
Pagaya’s latest earnings paint a picture of turnaround and expansion. The company reported an EPS of $0.64 for Q2 2025, demolishing analyst forecasts of $0.13, per Investing.com transcripts dated 7 August 2025. This profitability pivot—from prior net losses to positive income—has been bolstered by a 30% revenue jump to $326.4 million, as noted in Yahoo Finance updates. Network volume, a key metric for Pagaya’s platform that connects lenders with borrowers via AI, swelled to $2.8 billion, up 25% year-over-year.
Looking ahead, Pagaya has raised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue up to $1.325 billion, a figure that implies continued double-digit growth. This optimism is echoed in analyst models; for example, TipRanks aggregates show a consensus 12-month price target of around $40, based on eight analysts as of 25 January 2025, though recent upgrades suggest this could climb higher. The firm’s asset-backed securities (ABS) issuances have also hit records, with $2.3 billion raised in Q2 alone, including a $400 million auto loan deal rated AAA, per Investing.com reports from 7 August 2025.
Valuation and Market Context
At a current price of $28.67 as of pre-market trading on 11 August 2025 (Nasdaq Real Time Price), Pagaya trades at a forward P/E of 57.34 based on expected EPS of $0.50, according to live ticker data. This premium valuation reflects high growth expectations, with analysts forecasting EPS for the current year at $2.79, yielding a more grounded P/E of 10.27. Compared to its 52-week range of $8.20 to $41.48, the stock has surged over 140% from its lows, yet remains below its peak, offering room for upside if execution matches projections.
Historical comparisons add intrigue. Just a year ago, Pagaya grappled with profitability challenges, posting negative EBITDA margins amid scaling costs. Now, with gross margins holding steady above 70% and operating expenses controlled, the firm is mirroring the efficiency gains seen in fintech peers like Upstart or LendingClub, albeit with a sharper focus on AI underwriting. Analyst sentiment, as tracked by Zacks Investment Research on 23 October 2024, rates PGY as a Strong Buy with an average target implying over 40% upside from current levels.
Risks and Broader Implications
Of course, this bullish chorus isn’t without caveats. Pagaya’s reliance on credit market liquidity means any downturn in consumer borrowing—perhaps triggered by persistent inflation or recession signals—could crimp volumes. The firm’s debt-to-equity ratio, while improved, still warrants monitoring, and competition from traditional banks adopting similar AI tools poses a threat. Yet, with 145 funding partners now in its network, up from prior quarters, Pagaya appears insulated, at least in the near term.
Investor sentiment from professional sources remains overwhelmingly positive. CNN Business, citing data as of 26 June 2023 but updated through 2025 forecasts, assigns a Strong Buy rating, while Fintel.io’s predictions align with targets in the $35–$50 range. Dark wit aside, if Pagaya’s AI proves as prescient as its backers believe, the stock could lend new meaning to “high-interest” investments.
Outlook and Analyst Forecasts
Analyst-led forecasts for Pagaya are buoyant. StockAnalysis.com, as of 23 October 2024, projects 2025 revenue at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with EPS growth at a 16% CAGR through 2027, driven by margin expansion. Public.com’s consensus, dated 24 January 2025, sees a $23.79 target, but this predates the latest upgrades, suggesting revisions upward. Citi, in a note from 7 August 2025 via Investing.com, has hiked its target to $40, emphasising ABS momentum and partner additions.
In summary, these upgrades encapsulate a market betting on Pagaya’s tech edge to navigate credit cycles. For investors eyeing fintech disruption, the firm’s trajectory offers a compelling case, provided macroeconomic winds don’t shift abruptly.
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Change | Analyst Consensus (2025 FY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $326.4M | +30% | $1.2B–$1.325B |
| EPS | $0.64 | From loss | $2.79 |
| Network Volume | $2.8B | +25% | N/A |
| Price Target Range (Recent Upgrades) | $35–$54 | ||
References
- Investing.com. (2025, August 7). Earnings call transcript: Pagaya Q2 2025 beats expectations. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-pagaya-q2-2025-beats-expectations-stock-surges-93CH-4177877
- Investing.com. (2025, August 7). Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raises Pagaya Tech stock price target to $38 on growth. https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/keefe-bruyette–woods-raises-pagaya-tech-stock-price-target-to-38-on-growth-93CH-4181105
- Investing.com. (2025, August). Pagaya stock hits 52-week high at $36.08 USD. https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/pagaya-stock-hits-52week-high-at-3608-usd-93CH-4177178
- Public.com. (2025, January 24). Pagaya Technologies stock forecast. https://public.com/stocks/pgy/forecast-price-target
- StockAnalysis.com. (2024, October 23). Pagaya Technologies stock outlook. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pgy/forecast/
- TipRanks. (2025, January 25). Pagaya Technologies analyst ratings. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pgy/forecast
- Yahoo Finance. (2025, August 11). Pagaya Technologies Q2 2025 results. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGY/
- Yahoo Finance. (2025, August 11). Pagaya Technologies (PGY) raises 2025 guidance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pagaya-technologies-pgy-raises-2025-180924973.html
- Zacks Investment Research. (2024, October 23). PGY stock forecast and ratings. https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PGY/price-target-stock-forecast
- CNN. (2023, June 26; updated through 2025). Market data and analyst ratings. https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/PGY
- Fintel.io. (2025). Forecast data and analyst sentiment for PGY. https://fintel.io/sfo/us/pgy
