EQT $EQT Raises 2025 Production Guidance Amid US LNG Export Capacity Ramp-Up

As the United States gears up for a significant expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, producers in the Marcellus shale region stand to benefit from heightened demand. EQT Corporation, a leading player in this basin, has recently adjusted its 2025 production outlook upwards, signalling confidence in the market dynamics driven by new LNG facilities coming online. This development underscores the interplay between domestic natural gas output and the ramp-up of export infrastructure, potentially reshaping pricing and supply chains in the energy sector.

EQT’s Strategic Positioning in the Marcellus

EQT Corporation operates extensively in the Marcellus and Utica shales, focusing on efficient extraction of natural gas through advanced drilling techniques. With proved reserves exceeding 19 trillion cubic feet equivalent as of historical data from 2019, the company has built a reputation for cost-effective production. The Marcellus formation, known for its low breakeven costs—often cited below $2.75 per million cubic feet in industry analyses—positions EQT advantageously amid fluctuating gas prices.

Recent updates from EQT highlight an increase in its 2025 production guidance, reflecting robust operational performance and strategic hedging. This adjustment aligns with broader trends in the Appalachian Basin, where producers are scaling up to meet anticipated demand surges. Analysts note that such guidance revisions often stem from improved well productivity and infrastructure enhancements, allowing EQT to capitalise on emerging opportunities without proportional increases in capital expenditure.

Linking Production to LNG Export Growth

The anticipated ramp-up in US LNG exports for 2025 and 2026 is poised to absorb excess domestic supply, providing a torque to producers like EQT. Key projects include Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines LNG, and Golden Pass LNG, which are expected to add substantial export capacity. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), these facilities could boost LNG exports by around 25% in 2025, with Plaquemines Phase 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 already commencing production in late 2024.

Corpus Christi Stage 3, developed by Cheniere Energy, produced its first LNG cargo in February 2025, marking a milestone in expanding Gulf Coast export capabilities. Similarly, Plaquemines LNG, operated by Venture Global, has shown ambitious ramp-up plans, with reports indicating operations at 140% of nameplate capacity for initial trains. Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture involving ExxonMobil, recently received regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in July 2025, paving the way for feed gas intake and full operations.

These developments are projected to increase US LNG exports to approximately 20 billion cubic feet per day by 2026, per EIA forecasts. For Marcellus producers, this translates to enhanced offtake options, as pipelines connect the Northeast to Gulf Coast terminals. EQT’s raised guidance—potentially targeting higher volumes—positions it to supply this growing export market, mitigating risks from domestic oversupply that has pressured prices in recent years.

Market Implications and Pricing Dynamics

The interplay between increased production and LNG demand could stabilise natural gas prices, which have been volatile. EIA projections suggest wholesale prices rising in 2025 and 2026 due to export-driven demand outpacing supply growth. Analyst models, such as those from the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicate that North American projects like these will account for three-quarters of global incremental LNG supply in 2025.

For EQT, this environment offers torque—industry parlance for amplified upside potential. With breakeven costs in the Marcellus remaining competitive, even modest price uplifts could enhance margins. Live market data as of 16 August 2025 shows EQT shares closing at $52.85 on the NYSE, up 1.54% from the previous close, reflecting a 4.30% gain over the 200-day moving average of $50.67. The stock’s forward P/E ratio of 20.97 suggests market expectations of earnings growth, aligned with analyst ratings averaging a ‘Buy’ at 1.6.

However, risks persist. Delays in LNG project timelines, as explored in EIA sensitivity analyses from April 2025, could temper demand. Venture Global’s ambitious Plaquemines ramp, while promising, raises stakes on gas supply tightness, potentially leading to localised price spikes if infrastructure lags.

Analyst Forecasts and Sentiment

Credible sources express optimism. The IEA’s October 2024 report highlighted North America’s lead in 2025 LNG supply growth, driven by these projects. Sentiment from Pipeline and Gas Journal in January 2025 echoes EIA views on rising prices amid LNG demand. Analyst-led forecasts, such as those from Natural Gas Intelligence in June 2025, predict a rally in natural gas prices in the latter half of 2025, bolstered by export momentum.

EQT’s own metrics support this: with a market capitalisation of $32.98 billion and EPS projections of $3.25 for the current year, the company appears undervalued relative to peers if LNG ramps proceed as planned. Dry humour aside, one might say EQT is drilling into a vein of opportunity, provided global energy markets don’t frack under pressure.

Broader Industry Context

The US natural gas landscape is evolving, with Appalachian producers like EQT adapting to export-led demand. Historical trends show Marcellus output growing steadily, contributing over 30% of US dry gas production. EQT’s focus on environmental stewardship, including water recycling in operations, aligns with regulatory shifts towards sustainable energy.

Looking ahead, if Golden Pass and Plaquemines Phase 2 achieve full capacity by 2026, daily exports could surge, pulling more Marcellus gas southward. This could pressure midstream assets, but EQT’s interests in pipelines like EQT Midstream provide a hedge.

• Production Upside: Raised 2025 guidance reflects confidence in asset performance.
• LNG Torque: Exposure to export growth via key Gulf Coast projects.
• Valuation Metrics: Forward EPS of $2.52 supports growth narrative.
• Risks: Project delays or geopolitical factors could cap upside.

In summary, EQT’s elevated production outlook amid the US LNG expansion narrative presents a compelling case for investors eyeing natural gas plays. As facilities like Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines, and Golden Pass ramp up, the Marcellus heavyweight could see sustained momentum, provided market fundamentals align.

References

• Cheniere Energy. (2025, March 12). First LNG cargo produced at Corpus Christi Stage 3 export facility. LNG Industry. https://www.lngindustry.com/liquefaction/12032025/first-lng-cargo-produced-at-corpus-christi-stage-3-export-facility/
• East Daley Analytics. (2025). Ambitious Plaquemines ramp raises stakes on gas supply. https://www.eastdaley.com/media-and-news/ambitious-plaquemines-ramp-raises-stakes-on-gas-supply
• East Daley Analytics. (2025). Venture Global plans ambitious ramp at Plaquemines LNG. https://www.eastdaley.com/the-burner-tip/venture-global-plans-ambitious-ramp-at-plaquemines-lng
• Energy Information Administration. (2025, April). Today in Energy – Golden Pass LNG gains FERC approval. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/golden-pass-lng-gains-crucial-ferc-approval-setting-stage-for-feed-gas-ramp-up-the-offtake
• Energy Information Administration. (2025). How will LNG facility timing impact forecasts?. https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/04042025/how-will-the-start-up-timing-of-new-us-lng-export-facilities-affect-the-eias-forecast/
• Energy Information Administration. (2025). Forecasts for US LNG exports and prices. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64884
• EQT Corporation. (n.d.). Company Overview and Operations. https://www.eqt.com/
• EQT Corporation. (n.d.). Production Data. https://www.eqt.com/operations/production
• ETF Trends. (2025). LNG tailwind: US natural gas projects progress. https://www.etftrends.com/energy-infrastructure-channel/lng-tailwind-us-natural-gas-intact-projects-progress/
• Hart Energy. (2024). IEA: North America to lead LNG growth in 2025. https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/iea-north-america-lead-lng-supply-growth-2025-210810
• Marcellus Drilling News. (2022). US LNG exports to hit 20 Bcf/d by 2026. https://marcellusdrilling.com/2022/09/u-s-lng-exports-to-hit-20-bcf-d-by-2026-as-more-plants-begin-const/
• Natural Gas Intelligence. (2025, June). EIA forecasts LNG-driven gas price rally in H2 2025. https://naturalgasintel.com/news/natural-gas-prices-to-rally-on-lng-demand-momentum-in-back-half-of-2025-eia-forecasts
• Pipeline & Gas Journal. (2025, January). EIA projects rising US natural gas prices amid growing LNG demand. https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/january/eia-projects-rising-us-natural-gas-prices-amid-growing-lng-demand
• Wikipedia. (n.d.). EQT Corporation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EQT_Corporation
• X (formerly Twitter) accounts referenced: @EricNuttall, @FransBakker9812, @ExxonMobil, @DefiyantlyFree, @NextWaveEFT, @MacroEdgeRes