The public safety communications sector in the United States, underpinned by networks like FirstNet, represents a critical and growing niche within the broader telecommunications industry. With over 7 million first responders as a potential user base, the financial implications of widespread adoption of a dedicated broadband network are significant, offering a stable revenue stream for operators like AT&T, which manages FirstNet. This analysis delves into the adoption trends, revenue potential, and valuation dynamics of such a network, providing a grounded perspective on its economic impact.
Adoption Trends and Market Reach
FirstNet, built with AT&T, has made substantial strides in connecting public safety personnel across the US. As of early 2025, reports indicate that the network supports over 7 million connections, a figure that reflects robust growth in adoption among first responders and related agencies. This aligns with the network’s mission to provide a high-speed, nationwide wireless broadband solution tailored to emergency response needs. Recent expansions, including the addition of 1,000 new cell sites with Band 14 spectrum in 2025, underscore a commitment to enhancing coverage and reliability, particularly in disaster-prone or remote areas.
The adoption rate among first responders appears to be nearing utility-level status, with a significant portion of the target market already engaged. If one conservatively estimates that 75% to 80% of the 7 million first responders adopt the service, the user base could stabilise at around 5.25 to 5.6 million subscribers. This estimate accounts for potential holdouts due to budget constraints or legacy system reliance in smaller agencies, though ongoing innovations and federal support may push adoption even higher.
Revenue Potential and Financial Metrics
From a revenue perspective, the public safety broadband market offers a predictable and recurring income stream, given the essential nature of the service. Assuming an average revenue per user (ARPU) of approximately £5.50 per month, or £66 annually, a subscriber base of 5.25 million could generate annual revenues in the range of £346 million. Adjusting for a slightly higher ARPU of £7 per month, as speculated in some industry discussions on platforms like X by accounts such as SpaceInvestor_D, the revenue could climb to around £462 million annually at an 80% adoption rate. These figures are based on 2025 estimates and reflect the current scale of FirstNet’s reported connections.
Operating margins in such a specialised service are likely to be healthy, given the economies of scale and the lack of traditional retail overheads. If one assumes an EBITDA margin of 65% to 70%, the resulting EBITDA could fall between £225 million and £323 million annually. These margins are plausible, considering AT&T’s infrastructure efficiencies and the dedicated nature of the FirstNet spectrum, which minimises competitive overlap.
Valuation Dynamics
Valuing a network like FirstNet requires a blend of traditional telecom multiples and an appreciation for its unique public safety mandate. Applying a conservative enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 14x to 15x, in line with telecom sector averages for specialised services, the implied valuation could range from £3.15 billion to £4.85 billion. This range assumes steady-state adoption and excludes potential upside from additional government contracts or international expansion of similar models.
The table below summarises the financial scenarios based on varying adoption rates and ARPU assumptions for 2025:
| Adoption Rate | Subscribers (Millions) | ARPU (£/Month) | Annual Revenue (£ Millions) | EBITDA Margin | EBITDA (£ Millions) | EV/EBITDA Multiple | Valuation (£ Billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 5.25 | 5.50 | 346 | 65% | 225 | 14x | 3.15 |
| 80% | 5.60 | 7.00 | 470 | 70% | 329 | 15x | 4.93 |
These figures are illustrative and hinge on sustained adoption momentum and stable ARPU. They also assume no significant disruption from competing technologies or policy shifts, such as the looming 2027 reauthorisation deadline for FirstNet, which public safety groups are already lobbying to secure.
Risks and Considerations
While the financial outlook appears promising, several risks warrant attention. Budgetary constraints at state and local levels could slow adoption among smaller agencies, particularly if subscription costs rise. Additionally, the reliance on a single operator, AT&T, introduces concentration risk, though the network’s dedicated spectrum mitigates some competitive pressures. Finally, the evolving nature of public safety technology, including potential integration with 5G or satellite-based solutions, could alter the long-term value proposition of FirstNet.
On the flip side, the network’s role in disaster response, as demonstrated during recent Texas floods in 2025, reinforces its indispensability. The ability to triage network assets during natural disasters, ensuring connectivity for first responders, adds a layer of intangible value that standard financial metrics struggle to capture.
Conclusion
The public safety broadband market, epitomised by FirstNet, offers a compelling case study in niche telecom economics. With a potential revenue base nearing £470 million annually at high adoption rates and EBITDA margins that could exceed 65%, the financial underpinnings are robust. Valuations in the £3 billion to £5 billion range reflect a conservative yet realistic assessment of its worth in 2025. As the sector evolves, balancing adoption growth with operational stability will be key to realising this potential, even if the odd natural disaster reminds everyone why such networks exist in the first place.
References
- AT&T. (2025, March 31). FirstNet Expands Coverage for America’s First Responders. Retrieved from https://about.att.com/story/2025/firstnet-expands-coverage.html
- AT&T. (2025, April 21). FirstNet Expands Public Safety Connectivity with 1,000 New Sites. Retrieved from https://about.att.com/story/2025/firstnet-1k-new-sites.html
- Firehouse. (2025). Firefighter and Public Safety Wireless Broadband Network FirstNet; Firefighter Company FirstNet Texas Flood Update. Retrieved from https://www.firehouse.com/safety-health/press-release/55301914/firefighter-and-public-safety-wireless-broadband-network-firstnet-firefighter-company-firstnet-texas-flood-update
- First Responder Network Authority. (2021, January 29). FirstNet Network Adoption Grows, New Mission-Ready Solutions Launch. Retrieved from https://firstnet.gov/newsroom/press-releases/firstnet-network-adoption-grows-new-mission-ready-solutions-launch
- First Responder Network Authority. (n.d.). Annual Report Highlights Public Safety Communications Advances Through Innovation. Retrieved from https://firstnet.gov/newsroom/blog/annual-report-highlights-public-safety-communications-advances-through-innovation
- FirstNet. (n.d.). Homepage. Retrieved from https://www.firstnet.com/
- International Fire and Safety Journal. (2025, June 25). US Public Safety Groups Call for FirstNet Reauthorisation Before 2027 Deadline. Retrieved from https://internationalfireandsafetyjournal.com/us-public-safety-groups-call-for-firstnet-reauthorisation-before-2027-deadline/
- Light Reading. (2025, July 9). How AT&T’s FirstNet Triages Network Assets During Natural Disasters. Retrieved from https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/how-at-t-s-firstnet-triages-network-assets-during-natural-disasters
- MarketsandMarkets. (2025). Physical Security Market worth $151.50 billion by 2030. PR Newswire. Retrieved from https://prnewswire.com/news-releases/physical-security-market-worth-151-50-billion-by-2030–marketsandmarkets-302506518.html
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- SpaceInvestor_D [@SpaceInvestor_D]. (2025). Posts on X. Retrieved from https://x.com/SpaceInvestor_D/status/1934650386922754212
