Key Takeaways
- Gambling.com Group is trading at a relatively modest valuation, with analysts estimating a 5x 2025 EBITDA multiple, compared to peers trading at 8–12x.
- Q2 2025 financial results showed 30% year-on-year revenue growth and 22% EBITDA growth, bolstered by strategic acquisitions and omnichannel marketing expansion.
- Recent acquisitions, particularly Spotlight.Vegas, reflect a targeted push into high-margin, niche affiliate markets with performance-based earn-out incentives.
- The affiliate model, paired with lower capital intensity and scalability, positions Gambling.com competitively against larger industry players like Evolution Gaming.
- Analyst sentiment remains positive, with Jefferies maintaining a ‘buy’ rating and a revised price target of $15, citing upside potential.
In the dynamic landscape of online gambling affiliates, Gambling.com Group Limited stands out as a compelling case study in growth potential juxtaposed against modest valuations. As of the latest trading session, shares of the Nasdaq-listed firm closed at $8.61, reflecting a market capitalisation of approximately $307 million. This positioning invites scrutiny, particularly when viewed through the lens of forward earnings metrics, where the company’s projected 2025 EBITDA suggests a multiple that appears undemanding relative to its expansion trajectory in a burgeoning industry.
Navigating the Online Gambling Boom
The global online gambling market is experiencing robust expansion, driven by regulatory liberalisation, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behaviours. Industry estimates project the sector to grow from around $93 billion in 2024 to $153 billion by 2029, implying a compound annual growth rate of 11.9%. Within this arena, Gambling.com Group operates as a performance marketing specialist, connecting users with betting platforms through digital channels. Its business model leverages SEO, content creation, and increasingly diversified omnichannel strategies to capture affiliate revenues.
Recent financial performance underscores this momentum. For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of $39.6 million, a 30% increase year-on-year, alongside adjusted EBITDA of $13.7 million, up 22%. This growth was attributed to strategic diversification beyond traditional search engines, incorporating sports data services and targeted acquisitions. Notably, the acquisition of Spotlight.Vegas for an initial $8 million, with potential earn-outs up to $22 million based on incremental EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, highlights management’s focus on expanding into high-margin niches.
Valuation Through an EBITDA Lens
A key metric drawing investor attention is the company’s valuation relative to its guided 2025 EBITDA. Analysts’ consensus points to forward multiples that position Gambling.com at around 5 times expected EBITDA for that year, a figure that seems conservative given the sector’s growth tailwinds. For context, peers in the online gaming and affiliate space often trade at 8–12 times forward EBITDA, reflecting premiums for scale and market penetration. Gambling.com’s lower multiple could signal an opportunity, particularly as the firm guides full-year 2025 revenue between $171 million and $175 million, implying sustained double-digit growth.
To dissect this further, consider the trailing twelve-month figures. With a current enterprise value hovering near $300 million (accounting for net cash positions), and assuming analyst models project 2025 EBITDA in the range of $50–60 million based on recent trends, the implied multiple aligns with the lower end of industry norms. This is not mere speculation; Jefferies recently adjusted its price target on the stock to $15, citing multiple contraction but maintaining a buy rating, with revised EV/EBITDA estimates at 9.0x for fiscal 2026. Such forecasts, while labelled as analyst-led projections, suggest room for re-rating if execution remains on track.
| Metric | Value (as of 2025-08-17) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Share Price | $8.61 | Closed down 17.05% from previous session |
| Market Cap | $307 million | Based on 35.7 million shares outstanding |
| Forward P/E (2025) | 9.46 | Consensus estimates |
| 52-Week Range | $8.50 – $17.14 | Current price at lower end |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 (Strong Buy) | From verified sources |
This table illustrates the stock’s current positioning, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio that complements the EBITDA narrative. The strong buy rating from analysts, as aggregated on platforms like Seeking Alpha, reflects sentiment from credible sources such as Jefferies and company filings, indicating optimism around earnings momentum.
Growth Drivers and Strategic Shifts
Gambling.com’s trajectory is bolstered by several catalysts. First, the ongoing legalisation of sports betting in key markets, particularly in North America, provides a fertile ground for affiliate marketing. The U.S. sports betting market alone is forecasted to expand significantly, with historical estimates from sources like Bloomberg suggesting growth from $9.5 billion in 2021 to $37 billion by 2025—figures that have likely been surpassed given recent trends.
Second, the company’s pivot towards omnichannel marketing reduces dependency on volatile search algorithms. Q2 results highlighted this shift, with sports data services contributing to record gross profits. Management’s commentary during the earnings call emphasised this diversification, noting it as a buffer against channel-specific risks.
Acquisitions play a pivotal role too. The Spotlight.Vegas deal, structured with performance-based earn-outs, mitigates integration risks while aligning incentives. Analysts project this could add meaningful EBITDA accretion, potentially pushing 2025 figures higher if synergies materialise as expected.
- Regulatory Tailwinds: Expansion in states like New York and potential federal shifts could amplify user acquisition.
- Technological Edge: Investments in data analytics enhance user targeting, improving conversion rates.
- International Footprint: Beyond the U.S., European and emerging markets offer untapped potential.
However, risks persist. The stock’s recent 17% session decline, closing at $8.61 after opening at $8.79, may reflect broader market jitters or guidance nuances. Volume surged to over 4.4 million shares, well above the 10-day average of 1 million, suggesting heightened volatility. Moreover, contingent liabilities from acquisitions, such as the $21.2 million fair value adjustment impacting GAAP EPS in Q2, warrant monitoring.
Peer Comparison and Market Sentiment
Comparing Gambling.com to peers like Evolution Gaming, which boasts EBITDA margins exceeding 68% and a five-year revenue CAGR of 41%, reveals both opportunities and gaps. Evolution trades at premium multiples, but Gambling.com’s affiliate model offers higher scalability with lower capital intensity. Sentiment from verified sources, including Nasdaq analyst reviews, labels the stock as a strong buy, with price targets implying upside from current levels.
Posts on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) from industry observers echo bullish themes on online gambling’s growth, with mentions of crypto integration and market projections reinforcing the sector’s allure. Yet, these are inconclusive and serve merely as anecdotal sentiment indicators.
Investment Implications
For investors eyeing undervalued growth stories, Gambling.com’s 5x 2025 EBITDA multiple presents a thesis worth exploring. If the company delivers on its guidance—potentially achieving adjusted EPS of $0.91 forward—re-rating could follow. Analyst models, such as those from Alpha Spread, suggest intrinsic values above current prices under base-case scenarios.
That said, execution is key. Monitoring upcoming quarters for sustained revenue growth and margin stability will be crucial. In a market where growth often commands a premium, this setup might just be the calculated wager discerning investors are seeking—provided the house edge tilts in their favour.
References
- Alpha Spread. (2025). Gambling.com Group Limited intrinsic valuation summary. Retrieved from https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/gamb/summary
- Investing.com. (2025). Gambling.com Group profile and market data. Retrieved from https://www.investing.com/equities/gambling-com-group
- Jefferies. (2025). Analyst rating and price target revision report. Retrieved from https://investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jefferies-lowers-gamblingcom-stock-price-target-to-15-on-multiple-contraction-93CH-4194790
- Nasdaq. (2025). Gambling.com Q2 earnings and revenue report. Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gamblingcom-group-limited-gamb-q2-earnings-and-revenues-beat-estimates
- NewsNet5. (2025). Gambling.com Q2 2025: strong financial growth. Retrieved from https://www.newsnet5.com/news/gambling-com-group-q2-2025-strong-financial-growth/
- Seeking Alpha. (2025). GAMB analyst ratings and sentiment overview. Retrieved from https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GAMB
- Silicon UK. (2025). Second quarter revenue and EBITDA press release. Retrieved from https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/gambling-com-group-reports-record-second-quarter-revenue-and-adjusted-ebitda
- StockAnalysis. (2025). Gambling.com statistical overview. Retrieved from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gamb/statistics/
- Yahoo Finance. (2025). Company profile and financial metrics. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gambling-com-group-limited-gamb-002439866.html
- Yahoo Finance. (2025). Key statistics page. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GAMB/key-statistics/
- MarketScreener. (2025). Analyst consensus for Gambling.com. Retrieved from https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GAMBLING-COM-GROUP-LIMITE-124982787/consensus/
- AInvest. (2025). Q2 earnings summary and strategic highlights. Retrieved from https://www.ainvest.com/news/gambling-group-q2-2025-earnings-buy-opportunity-strategic-diversification-earnings-momentum-2508/
- Gambling Insider. (2025). Q2 2025 financial report coverage. Retrieved from https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/30750/gamblingcom-group-q2-2025-revenue-rises-30
- X.com accounts cited: Diamond, ggeeks.io, Daniel, Crypto Adventure, Edgeless. Selected posts provided anecdotal sentiment and were not substantively cited.
