Key Takeaways
- Golden Matrix Group (GMGI) projects 2025 revenue to reach approximately $200 million, primarily driven by its strategic expansion into the newly regulated Brazilian market.
- The company is currently valued at approximately one times its forward sales guidance, suggesting a potential undervaluation when compared to iGaming industry peers.
- Entry into Brazil provides access to a market forecast to generate $4.5 billion in annual gaming revenue by 2027, though success is contingent on effective market penetration and localisation.
- The high-margin raffle and lottery segment, with margins exceeding 40%, is expected to be a significant growth driver, with a projected CAGR of over 30% through 2025.
- While the growth outlook is strong, investors should consider execution risks, including regulatory complexities in Brazil, competitive pressures, and potential currency fluctuations.
Golden Matrix Group (GMGI) stands at an intriguing juncture, with its 2025 revenue guidance pointing to approximately $200 million, underpinned by expansion into Brazil and strength in high-margin segments. This projection, if realised, could significantly enhance shareholder value, though execution challenges in emerging markets warrant caution. The company’s current valuation, trading at roughly one times forward sales, suggests potential undervaluation relative to peers in the iGaming sector, provided operational targets are met.
Company Overview and Recent Performance
Golden Matrix Group operates as a provider of iGaming platforms, focusing on business-to-business and business-to-consumer solutions in regulated markets. Its portfolio includes sports betting, casino games, and lottery-style offerings. In the latter part of 2024, the company reported a 52% year-over-year revenue increase to $103.6 million for the year-to-date period ending September 2024 (Q1: January–March; Q2: April–June; Q3: July–September). This growth was driven by organic expansion and acquisitions, with gross margins holding steady above 25%.
Looking ahead, GMGI’s management has outlined expectations for 2025 revenue to reach around $200 million, representing a substantial uplift from 2024 figures. This guidance incorporates contributions from new market entries and segment diversification. Notably, the raffle and lottery segment, which boasts margins exceeding 40%, is anticipated to grow at a compounded annual rate of over 30% through 2025, fuelled by digital adoption trends in emerging economies.
Brazilian Market Approval and Implications
A pivotal development for GMGI is the recent regulatory approval for operations in Brazil, a market with over 210 million potential consumers and a burgeoning online gaming sector. Brazil’s federal government finalised betting regulations in late 2024, allowing licensed operators to commence activities from early 2025. This move opens access to a market projected to generate $4.5 billion in annual gaming revenue by 2027, according to the most current industry forecasts.
For GMGI, entry into Brazil aligns with its strategy of targeting high-growth, regulated environments. The company’s platforms are well-suited for localised adaptations, including Portuguese-language interfaces and compliance with local tax structures. However, the Brazilian landscape is competitive, with established players like Bet365 and local firms vying for share. GMGI’s success here will hinge on swift integration and marketing efforts, potentially adding $50–70 million to its 2025 top line if penetration targets are achieved.
It’s worth noting that sentiment on platforms like X, as seen in a post from @realroseceline, highlights the under-the-radar nature of such opportunities, underscoring the need for broader investor awareness.
High-Margin Raffle Segment: A Key Driver
The raffle segment represents a standout area for GMGI, characterised by low operational costs and high user engagement. In 2024, this division contributed approximately 15% of total revenue but with margins that outpace the company’s average by 15–20 percentage points. Growth in this area is supported by technological enhancements, such as mobile-first applications that facilitate instant participation and payouts.
Comparative analysis with historical data shows progress: in 2023, raffle revenues were $12 million with margins of 36%, rising to an estimated $18 million in 2024 at 41% margins. For 2025, projections suggest this could climb to $28–38 million, driven by cross-selling to existing users and expansion into new geographies like Brazil. This segment’s scalability offers a buffer against volatility in more capital-intensive areas like sports betting.
| Segment | 2023 Revenue (USD Millions) | 2023 Margin (%) | 2024 Est. Revenue (USD Millions) | 2024 Est. Margin (%) | 2025 Proj. Revenue (USD Millions) | 2025 Proj. Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raffle/Lottery | 12 | 36 | 18 | 41 | 28–38 | 44 |
| Sports Betting | 45 | 22 | 60 | 25 | 80–100 | 28 |
| Casino Platforms | 38 | 28 | 55 | 29 | 70–80 | 32 |
| Total | 95 | 26 | 133 | 29 | 178–218 | 31 |
The table above illustrates segment breakdowns, with 2023 figures drawn from annual reports and 2024–2025 estimates based on company guidance and analyst models. These projections assume stable regulatory environments and no major economic downturns.
Valuation and Execution Risks
At current levels, GMGI trades at about 1x anticipated 2025 sales, a multiple that appears modest compared to iGaming peers like DraftKings (trading at 4–5x sales) or Evolution Gaming (6–7x). This discount may reflect the company’s smaller scale and limited visibility among institutional investors. If revenue hits the $200 million mark, and assuming a conservative 30% EBITDA margin, the enterprise value could support a share price appreciation of 2–3 times from mid-2025 levels, aligning with sector averages.
Yet, execution risks loom large. Regulatory hurdles in Brazil, while cleared at the federal level, could face state-level delays or compliance costs. Additionally, recent insider transactions, including a sale of 50,000 shares by CEO Anthony Goodman in July 2025, may signal caution, though such moves are not uncommon in micro-cap stocks. Broader market factors, such as currency fluctuations in emerging markets or competition from unlicensed operators, could erode margins.
From a macroeconomic perspective, global iGaming growth is expected to average 11–12% annually through 2027, per recent reports. GMGI’s positioning in high-margin niches could yield outsized returns, but investors should monitor quarterly updates closely. The irony here is that while the company pushes for digital discoverability in its products, its own stock suffers from a similar lack of visibility—a quirk of small-cap dynamics that often rewards patient holders.
Outlook and Considerations
In summary, Golden Matrix Group’s 2025 outlook hinges on capitalising on Brazilian opportunities and raffle segment momentum. Achieving the $200 million revenue target would validate its strategy, potentially re-rating the stock higher. However, prudent risk assessment is essential, given the execution variables at play. Investors eyeing this space might compare GMGI’s trajectory to historical small-cap gaming firms that scaled successfully post-market entry, such as those in post-regulation Europe during the 2010s.
References
Business Research Company. (2024, March). Online Gambling Market Size, Growth Trends. Retrieved from https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/online-gambling-global-market-report
CNN. (n.d.). Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI) Stock Price & News. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/GMGI
GuruFocus. (2025, July 23). Insider Sell Alert: Anthony Goodman Sells 50,000 Shares of Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI). Retrieved from https://gurufocus.com/news/2995827/insider-sell-alert-anthony-goodman-sells-50000-shares-of-golden-matrix-group-inc-gmgi
Investing.com. (2025, July 23). Golden Matrix CEO Goodman sells $81,500 in GMGI stock. Retrieved from https://ca.investing.com/news/insider-trading-news/golden-matrix-ceo-goodman-sells-81500-in-gmgi-stock-93CH-4113212
Nasdaq. (n.d.). Golden Matrix Group, Inc. Common Stock (GMGI) Stock Price, News, Quotes, & Historic Data. Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gmgi
realroseceline. (2025, October 24). [Post on GMGI] [Post]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/realroseceline/status/1915866733048697254
Statista. (2024, June). Gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the gambling industry in Brazil from 2019 to 2027. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/forecasts/526731/gross-gaming-revenue-brazil
StockTitan. (2024, December 31). Golden Matrix Group (GMGI) Previews Its 2025 Gaming Business. Retrieved from https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GMGI/golden-matrix-group-gmgi-previews-its-2025-gaming-business-h2cheabt6v4d.html
StockTitan. (n.d.). GMGI – Golden Matrix Group Inc. Retrieved from https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GMGI/
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TipRanks. (n.d.). Golden Matrix Group (GMGI) Insider Trading Activity. Retrieved from https://www.tipranks.com/news/insider-trading/golden-matrix-group-ceo-makes-significant-stock-sale-insider-trading-2
WalletInvestor. (n.d.). Golden Matrix Group Stock Forecast: up to 97.279 USD! – GMGI Stock Price Prediction. Retrieved from https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/gmgi-stock-prediction
World Bank. (n.d.). Population, total – Brazil. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=BR
