Growth Stocks 2025: $MP Leads with 189% Surge, $OKLO and $HOOD Follow at 164%

An examination of the market’s highest-flying growth stocks this year reveals a landscape of sharp divergence, where performance is less about a single monolithic theme and more about specific, defensible catalysts. While a handful of companies in specialised sectors are delivering remarkable returns, many others, once buoyed by similar speculative narratives, have faltered. This bifurcation suggests a market that has become far more discerning, rewarding tangible progress and punishing those whose stories have yet to translate into fundamental momentum.

This is not a blanket risk-on rally reminiscent of previous cycles. Instead, we are witnessing a targeted allocation of capital towards firms demonstrating clear execution in arenas such as telehealth, retail finance, and frontier communications, while enthusiasm has cooled for others in areas like critical minerals and certain fintech segments. Understanding this divergence is key to navigating the current growth environment.

The Performance Divide

A glance at year-to-date performance figures for a basket of well-known growth stocks illustrates this stark reality. The dispersion of returns is exceptionally wide. While some names have doubled, others, sharing similarly ambitious long-term narratives, have seen their valuations cut significantly. This is not a market lifting all boats; it is a market picking favourites with prejudice.

The table below highlights the performance of several notable growth-oriented companies, showcasing the clear separation between the year’s winners and laggards.

*Performance data as of market close on 31 May 2024. Sources: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance.

Deconstructing the Leaders

The New Consumer Champions

At the forefront of the rally are companies like Hims & Hers and Robinhood, both of which have successfully tapped into powerful consumer trends while demonstrating improving financial discipline. Hims & Hers has transcended its initial focus on stigmatised health categories to become a formidable player in the broader telehealth market, notably benefiting from its entry into the high-growth weight-loss drug segment. The company’s recent results showed a 46% year-over-year revenue increase and a growing subscriber base, giving investors confidence in its platform strategy.¹

Robinhood, meanwhile, has staged a remarkable comeback. After a difficult period following the 2021 retail trading frenzy, the company achieved its first full year of GAAP profitability in 2023.² Its resurgence has been fuelled by a recovery in cryptocurrency trading volumes and rising net interest revenues, proving its business model can be viable outside of a zero-interest-rate environment. The market is rewarding this transition from a pure user-growth story to a profitable financial institution.

The Frontier Technology Bet

In the more speculative corner of the market, AST SpaceMobile and Oklo represent high-risk, high-reward wagers on paradigm-shifting technologies. AST SpaceMobile aims to build the first space-based cellular broadband network, a goal that has attracted both significant capital and scepticism. Recent successful tests of its BlueWalker 3 satellite and strategic funding from established telecoms have added a layer of credibility to its ambitious plans, fuelling its recent share price appreciation.³ Oklo, a developer of small-scale advanced nuclear reactors, benefits from a renewed global interest in nuclear power as a source of clean, reliable energy. Its success, however, remains contingent on navigating immense regulatory hurdles and proving its technology at scale.

A Cautionary Tale from the Laggards

The struggles of MP Materials and Pagaya offer a crucial counterpoint. MP Materials, the largest rare earth producer in the Western Hemisphere, operates with a strong geopolitical tailwind. Yet, its performance has been hampered by a significant decline in the price of rare earth oxides, particularly Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), which is essential for high-performance magnets. This demonstrates that even a strategically vital asset is not immune to commodity cycles.⁴

Pagaya, which uses artificial intelligence to assess credit for its lending partners, has seen its valuation slide amid persistent concerns about the macro environment. In a climate of higher interest rates, the market remains wary of credit quality and the robustness of AI underwriting models that have not been fully tested through a severe economic downturn.

Forward Guidance and a Hypothesis

The lesson for allocators is that the era of thematic basket-trading in growth stocks has passed. The current environment demands a granular, bottom-up approach focused on idiosyncratic drivers. The key differentiation is no longer just the size of the total addressable market, but the tangible evidence of a defensible moat and a clear, credible path to sustained profitability.

Looking ahead, a plausible hypothesis is that this performance divergence will intensify. The next phase of this cycle may centre on a flight to quality *within* the growth sector. Capital will likely consolidate further into companies that are not just growing their top line, but are also delivering expanding margins and positive free cash flow. The “story stocks” reliant on external funding and distant promises will face increasing scrutiny, while those demonstrating operational excellence, like Robinhood’s pivot to profitability, will command a lasting premium.

References

1. Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (2024, May 6). Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results. GlobeNewswire.
2. Robinhood Markets, Inc. (2024, February 13). Robinhood Markets, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results.
3. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (2024, January 19). AST SpaceMobile Announces Strategic Investment from AT&T, Google and Vodafone. Business Wire.
4. MP Materials Corp. (2024, May 2). MP Materials Reports First Quarter 2024 Results. Business Wire.