Nebius $NBIS Nears US Expansion with New Greenfield Sites to Boost AI Presence

Nebius Group’s latest signal on US expansion underscores a pivotal acceleration in its infrastructure ambitions, as the company edges closer to securing two major new greenfield sites. This move positions the AI infrastructure provider to ramp up its footprint in the world’s largest market for artificial intelligence consumption, potentially unlocking significant capacity additions amid surging demand for high-performance computing resources.

Scaling Ambitions in the American Heartland

The pursuit of these substantial greenfield sites reflects Nebius’s strategic pivot towards building bespoke data centres from the ground up, tailored to the exacting needs of AI workloads. Such developments typically involve securing vast tracts of land with access to abundant power and cooling resources, allowing for custom designs that maximise efficiency and scalability. For a company already investing heavily in European expansions, this US-focused initiative suggests a calculated bet on diversifying geographic exposure while tapping into North America’s robust ecosystem of AI developers and enterprises.

Historical precedents within Nebius’s portfolio illustrate the potential impact. Earlier in 2025, the firm announced a build-to-suit data centre in New Jersey with up to 300 MW of capacity, a project slated for initial completion by summer. That facility alone represented a leap towards meeting the company’s guidance of 100 MW installed by year-end, with flexibility to scale further. Similarly, deployments in Kansas City have added layers to its US presence, focusing on Nvidia H200 clusters that cater to cutting-edge AI training and inference. These two new sites, if finalised, could eclipse those efforts, potentially contributing to an aggregate power securing of over 1 GW by 2026, as indicated in recent corporate disclosures.

Investors should note how this aligns with broader capex escalations. Nebius revised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $2 billion, a hike that directly supports such greenfield ventures. This spending surge, drawn from sources like the company’s $700 million equity financing in late 2024, aims to fuel the rollout of full-stack AI infrastructure, blending hardware expertise with cloud engineering. The greenfield approach offers advantages over colocations, enabling proprietary optimisations that could yield higher margins in the long run, especially as AI builders seek dedicated, large-scale instances.

Capacity Projections and Operational Leverage

Analysing the implications, these sites could substantially boost Nebius’s installed capacity, building on its existing 75 MW flagship in Finland and expansions in Paris and Iceland. Web-sourced updates from Nebius’s announcements highlight a pattern: each new site not only adds megawatts but also enhances the company’s ability to host Nvidia’s latest GPUs, such as the H200 Tensor Core models. If the two US greenfields follow suit, they might deliver on promises of accelerated deployment, with first capacities online by mid-2025, per earlier guidance patterns.

From a financial lens, this expansion ties into forecasts of returning to positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025. Analyst models, including those from Seeking Alpha contributors, project revenues climbing towards $124 million for Q2 2025, with capex updates reinforcing growth trajectories. Trailing twelve-month EPS stands at -1.65, reflecting prior investments, but forward-looking estimates suggest a path to breakeven as utilisation rates improve. The market cap, hovering around $13.15 billion as of 7 August 2025, implies a valuation multiple that could compress favourably if these sites drive revenue inflection points.

Market Sentiment and Competitive Positioning

Sentiment from verified financial accounts, such as those on Seeking Alpha and Simply Wall St, leans bullish on Nebius’s US push, with ratings averaging a strong buy at 1.2. Analysts cite the Nvidia partnership as a key enabler, providing access to scarce GPU inventory that greenfield sites can leverage for competitive edge. This contrasts with peers struggling with supply constraints, positioning Nebius to capture share in a market where US AI consumption dominates global totals.

Intraday trading on 7 August 2025 showed NBIS shares closing at $55.09, down 14.5% from the previous session’s $55.17, amid broader market volatility coinciding with its earnings release. Volume reached 9.4 million shares, below the three-month average of 13.5 million but indicative of heightened interest. This sessional dip, however, follows a 63.8% rise over the 200-day average of $33.63, suggesting underlying confidence in expansion narratives. The 52-week range from $14.09 to $58.16 further contextualises the stock’s resilience, with these greenfield developments potentially catalysing a rebound if deal closures materialise swiftly.

Competitively, Nebius’s greenfield strategy mirrors industry trends but with a European-rooted twist. While hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon dominate US data centre landscapes, Nebius’s focus on AI-specific builds—drawing on its 400-strong engineering team—offers differentiation. Posts on X from financial observers echo this, highlighting how such sites could secure over 400 MW in total expansions, amplifying the company’s global AI infrastructure play.

Risks in the Expansion Equation

Yet, the path to closing these deals carries inherent risks. Regulatory hurdles in US site acquisitions, particularly around energy grid access and environmental approvals, could delay timelines. Nebius’s book value of $13.28 per share and price-to-book of 4.15 reflect a premium on growth expectations, but any slippage in execution might pressure valuations. Moreover, with 203 million shares outstanding, dilution from further financings remains a watchpoint, especially as the company pursues gigawatt-scale ambitions.

Model-based forecasts from sources like Simply Wall St anticipate EBITDA positivity hinging on efficient capex deployment. If these greenfields integrate seamlessly with existing operations—such as the Icelandic colocation set for Q2 2025—they could accelerate monetisation, potentially lifting forward P/E from its current -39.63 on trailing losses.

Investor Implications: A Bet on AI Infrastructure Dominance

Ultimately, securing these two US greenfield sites represents more than incremental growth; it signals Nebius’s intent to evolve from a regional player into a global contender in AI infrastructure. By mid-2026, this could translate to diversified revenue streams, with US operations offsetting any European market softness. For investors, the narrative boils down to execution: if the team delivers on these near-closures, the stock’s 12.5% rise over the 50-day average of $48.96 might prove just the beginning.

The trajectory here draws parallels to Nebius’s earlier $1 billion European investment pledge by mid-2025, which included greenfields and colocations yielding tangible capacity gains. Extending that blueprint stateside could validate the company’s valuation at $55.09, especially against a 52-week high of $58.16. Darkly amusing, perhaps, that in a sector where power is the ultimate currency, Nebius’s land grabs might just power its ascent.

References

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• Cavenagh Research. (2025, August 6). Nebius: Updated Thesis And Key Expectations Ahead Of Q2 2025. Seeking Alpha. Retrieved from https://seekingalpha.com/article/4808981-nebius-updated-thesis-and-key-expectations-ahead-of-q2-2025
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