Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly $LLY Lead Obesity Market with $100B Potential by 2030

The global market for obesity and diabetes treatments stands on the cusp of unprecedented expansion, driven by escalating prevalence rates and innovative pharmacological advancements, with projections indicating a total addressable market exceeding USD 100 billion by 2030. This growth trajectory underscores the dominance of key players such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, whose glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists have reshaped therapeutic landscapes, capturing substantial market share amid rising demand for effective weight management and glycaemic control solutions.

Market Dynamics and Prevalence Trends

Obesity and type 2 diabetes represent intertwined public health challenges, with current estimates placing the number of obese adults worldwide at approximately 650 million as of 2024. Forecasts from health organisations suggest this figure could surpass 1 billion by 2030, implying that roughly two in three adults globally may be overweight or obese by that time. This surge correlates strongly with the increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes, which affects over 500 million individuals today and is projected to reach 700 million by 2045, according to data from the International Diabetes Federation.

In economic terms, the anti-obesity medication (AOM) segment alone generated revenues of around USD 50 billion in 2024, with analysts anticipating growth to USD 150 billion by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20%. The broader diabetes drugs market, valued at USD 78.11 billion in 2024, is expected to expand to USD 141.73 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 onwards. These figures incorporate contributions from GLP-1 agonists, which have emerged as dual-purpose treatments for both conditions, enhancing insulin secretion while promoting weight loss.

Key Drivers of Expansion

Several factors propel this market forward. Rising healthcare expenditures in developed economies, coupled with greater awareness of obesity-related comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, have amplified demand. In the United States, which accounts for nearly 70% of global sales for leading GLP-1 products, regulatory approvals and insurance coverage expansions have facilitated broader access. For instance, the US Food and Drug Administration’s ongoing endorsements for new indications, including cardiovascular risk reduction, have bolstered market penetration.

Supply chain enhancements also play a critical role. Persistent shortages of semaglutide-based drugs in 2024 prompted manufacturers to invest heavily in production capacity, with expansions expected to alleviate constraints by mid-2025. Meanwhile, emerging markets in Europe and Asia present untapped opportunities; the European GLP-1 agonists market, valued at USD 7.09 billion in 2024, is forecasted to reach USD 14.34 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 17.3%.

Dominance of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly collectively command a significant portion of the obesity and diabetes treatment arena, leveraging their flagship products to maintain competitive edges. Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide formulations, marketed as Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity, reported combined sales of USD 25.4 billion in the fiscal year ending 31 December 2024, up from USD 12.5 billion in 2023. This represents a year-over-year growth of 103%, driven by doubled Wegovy sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October–December).

Eli Lilly, on the other hand, has gained ground with tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. The company’s revenues from these products reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024, marking a 250% increase since their launches in 2022. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets noted in April 2025 that Eli Lilly is overtaking Novo Nordisk in market share, attributing this to tirzepatide’s superior efficacy in phase 3 trials, where it achieved average weight loss of 21% compared to semaglutide’s 15–17%.

Comparative performance data highlights these trends:

These estimates are derived from aggregated financial disclosures as of 29 July 2025, with market share calculations based on total GLP-1 sales of USD 50 billion in 2024.

Competitive Landscape and Innovations

While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly lead, the market is not without challengers. Emerging therapies, including oral GLP-1 agonists like Eli Lilly’s orforglipron (phase 3 results expected in late 2025) and retatrutide (demonstrating 24% median weight loss in phase 2 trials), could disrupt current dynamics. Novo Nordisk is countering with its own pipeline, including potential oral semaglutide variants anticipated for approval by 2026.

Broader competition includes generics and biosimilars; the first off-patent semaglutide is slated for select markets in 2026, potentially eroding pricing power. However, patent protections and manufacturing complexities are likely to sustain premiums for branded products through 2030. IQVIA projections for 2025 describe the year as a pivotal transition, with real-world evidence accumulating on AOMs’ long-term benefits, including sustained weight maintenance and reduced healthcare costs.

Forecasts and Investment Considerations

Looking ahead, AI-based forecasts grounded in historical sales patterns and epidemiological data project the combined obesity and diabetes market to hit USD 200 billion by 2032, assuming a 15% CAGR from 2025. This incorporates conservative estimates of adoption rates, with 50% of eligible US adults potentially accessing treatments by 2031, per UBS analyses. Such expansion could strain healthcare budgets, with annual costs potentially reaching USD 411 billion if uptake accelerates.

Sentiment from verified financial accounts on platforms like X, as of 28 July 2025, reflects optimism tempered by competitive risks. Discussions highlight Novo Nordisk’s valuation at its lowest since 2017, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25x, compared to Eli Lilly’s 45x, suggesting potential undervaluation amid market growth.

In summary, the obesity and diabetes treatment market’s evolution hinges on innovation, supply reliability, and regulatory support. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s entrenched positions position them to capitalise on this boom, though investors should monitor pipeline developments and generic entries for sustained dominance.

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