Key Takeaways
- Despite fierce competition from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk has increased its overall global market share in the GLP-1 category since 2022.
- The narrative of Novo’s decline is often skewed by short-term US data; a global view reveals a company capturing a larger piece of a rapidly expanding market.
- While Eli Lilly’s valuation and stock performance have soared past Novo’s, the Danish firm’s operational growth and lower P/E ratio may suggest it is undervalued.
- The market dynamic is less about one company cannibalising the other and more of a duopoly where both are scaling successfully to meet overwhelming global demand.
Amid swirling debates over competitive pressures in the GLP-1 arena, Novo Nordisk’s ability to expand its foothold since 2022 stands as a testament to underlying resilience, even as Eli Lilly mounts a formidable challenge.
Defying the Decline Narratives
Market observers have often painted a picture of Novo Nordisk ceding ground to Eli Lilly in the lucrative GLP-1 receptor agonist segment, yet a closer examination reveals a different story. Since 2022, Novo Nordisk has not merely held steady but actually increased its share of this rapidly expanding category, buoyed by strategic expansions and persistent demand for its flagship products like Ozempic and Wegovy. This growth trajectory counters the prevailing sentiment that Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro are inexorably eroding Novo’s dominance, highlighting instead a market where both players are scaling up amid insatiable global appetite for weight-loss and diabetes treatments.
Historical data underscores this point. In 2022, Novo Nordisk commanded a substantial portion of the GLP-1 market, estimated at around 60-65% globally, according to industry analyses from that period. Fast-forward to mid-2025, and while Lilly has indeed captured significant traction—reaching approximately 53% of the U.S. incretin analogs market by the second quarter, as per recent reports—Novo’s overall share has ticked upward when viewed across the broader GLP-1 landscape. This includes international markets where Novo’s established supply chains and regulatory approvals have allowed it to outpace rivals in volume growth. For instance, trailing twelve-month revenues from Novo’s GLP-1 portfolio have surged by over 40% since early 2023, outstripping the category’s average expansion rate and reflecting a compounded annual growth that defies tales of competitive eclipse.
The narrative of Novo falling behind often stems from short-term snapshots, such as quarterly U.S. prescription data where Lilly’s aggressive marketing and faster supply ramp-ups have shone. Yet, when dissecting the numbers, Novo’s market share in the global GLP-1 category has risen from about 62% in 2022 to nearer 65% by the end of 2024, per aggregated estimates from sources like IQVIA and company filings. This incremental gain, though modest in percentage terms, translates to billions in additional revenue as the total market ballooned from roughly $15 billion in 2022 to projections exceeding $50 billion by 2025. Such expansion illustrates how Novo’s entrenched position enables it to capture a larger slice of a vastly bigger pie, even as Lilly carves out its own impressive territory.
Competitive Dynamics Under the Microscope
Eli Lilly’s ascent in the GLP-1 space is undeniable, with products like tirzepatide demonstrating superior clinical outcomes in areas such as cardiovascular risk reduction and muscle mass preservation. These advantages have fuelled a significant disparity in stock performance and market valuation between the two giants.
| Metric | Novo Nordisk (NVO) | Eli Lilly (LLY) |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $213 billion | $687 billion |
| Forward P/E | 12.0 | 33.8 |
| Share Price | $48.83 | $765.34 |
| 52-Week High | $139.74 | $972.53 |
Data as of 4 August 2025.
This valuation gap belies the operational realities where Novo continues to grow its GLP-1 presence. Consider the supply chain battles that have defined this rivalry. Novo faced early manufacturing constraints post-2022, which temporarily hampered Wegovy’s availability and allowed Lilly to gain U.S. market share. However, Novo’s investments in production capacity, including new facilities in Denmark and the U.S., have since paid dividends. By 2024, output had ramped up sufficiently to support a 25% year-over-year increase in GLP-1 sales volumes, contributing to that market share uptick.
Analyst forecasts further illuminate this resilience. Consensus estimates as of mid-2025 project Novo’s GLP-1 revenues to grow at a 15-20% CAGR through 2027, slightly edging out Lilly’s 12-18% in certain models, thanks to Novo’s diversified geographic exposure. Sentiment from verified sources acknowledges competitive pressures but notes Novo’s insider-driven leadership changes could stabilise operations without disrupting core growth engines. This contrasts with darker wit in some quarters: if Lilly is the flashy newcomer crashing the party, Novo is the host quietly expanding the venue to accommodate everyone, ensuring it still collects the lion’s share of the cover charge.
Historical Share Shifts in Context
To appreciate Novo’s growth since 2022, it is instructive to compare trailing metrics. In fiscal 2022, Novo’s GLP-1 segment generated approximately DKK 80 billion in revenue, representing a dominant share. By the trailing twelve months ending Q2 2025, this had climbed to over DKK 140 billion, with market share edging higher amid a category that doubled in size. Lilly, starting from a smaller base, achieved explosive growth—its GLP-1 revenues ballooned from $5 billion in 2022 to projections of $25 billion in 2025—but this has come partly at the expense of smaller players, not necessarily chipping away at Novo’s core.
Intraday trading as of 4 August 2025 reflects this nuanced picture: Novo’s shares hovered around $48.83, up modestly from the previous close, while Lilly’s $765.34 price point showed a fractional gain. These levels, set against 52-week highs of $139.74 for Novo and $972.53 for Lilly, suggest investor wariness over recent guidance cuts and competitive noise. Yet, Novo’s lower P/E ratio hints at undervaluation, with some analysts arguing for a 38% upside potential, predicated on sustained market share gains in GLP-1.
Implications for Future Positioning
Looking ahead, Novo’s market share growth since 2022 positions it well to navigate intensifying competition. Pipeline developments, such as combinations involving semaglutide, may not have outshone Lilly’s retatrutide in trials, but they reinforce Novo’s ecosystem. Analyst models project slower second-half growth for Novo’s GLP-1 drugs, yet this is framed against a backdrop of overall category expansion where Novo’s share is expected to stabilise above 60%.
Sentiment among institutional investors remains bullish on the duopoly’s prospects, with the global GLP-1RA market forecasted to grow at a 12.8% CAGR through 2032. For Novo, this translates to fortified positioning, as its share gains underscore a competitive moat built on scale and experience. While Lilly’s innovations keep the pressure on, Novo’s track record suggests the narratives of decline may be overstated, with real-world data painting a picture of enduring strength.
Data referenced as of 4 August 2025, 17:17 UTC, with market share insights drawn from aggregated industry reports including IQVIA and company disclosures.
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