On Holding $ONON set to report Q2 earnings Tuesday with 35-45% revenue growth forecast

In the fiercely competitive athletic footwear sector, where legacy giants like Nike have long dominated, a Swiss upstart is carving out significant market share through innovation and rapid growth. On Holding AG, known for its performance running shoes, stands poised to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on 12 August, an event that could underscore its role as a genuine disruptor amid shifting consumer preferences and industry headwinds.

The Disruptive Edge in Athletic Footwear

On Holding has emerged as a formidable player by blending cutting-edge technology with a direct-to-consumer model that resonates with fitness enthusiasts and casual athletes alike. The company’s CloudTec cushioning system, which promises a unique “running on clouds” sensation, has not only captured the imagination of runners but also driven impressive sales momentum. In the first quarter of 2025, net sales surged 43% year-over-year to 726.6 million Swiss francs, as reported by WWD, highlighting the brand’s ability to outpace broader market sluggishness.

This growth trajectory positions On Holding as a disruptor in an industry grappling with inventory gluts and waning demand for traditional sportswear. While established names contend with oversupply and discounting pressures, On’s focus on premium, performance-oriented products has allowed it to maintain pricing power and expand its footprint. Analyst sentiment, as evidenced by UBS’s reiterated Buy rating and a price target of $75, points to solid second-quarter trends based on market checks, suggesting the company is capitalising on a rebound in athletic apparel demand.

Key Metrics to Watch in Q2 Earnings

Investors will be keenly eyeing several indicators in the upcoming earnings release, which could affirm On Holding’s disruptive potential or reveal vulnerabilities. Revenue growth remains a critical barometer; following the robust Q1 performance, consensus estimates project continued expansion, potentially in the high double digits, driven by strong North American and European sales. Gross margins, which stood at around 60% in recent quarters, will be scrutinised for signs of resilience amid rising input costs and supply chain complexities.

• Direct-to-Consumer Momentum: On’s DTC channel has been a growth engine, accounting for a substantial portion of sales. Any acceleration here could signal effective digital marketing and brand loyalty, distinguishing it from peers reliant on wholesale partners.
• International Expansion: With ambitions in Asia and other emerging markets, updates on geographic diversification will indicate how well On is disrupting beyond its core European base.
• Product Innovation Pipeline: Details on new launches, such as expansions into trail running or lifestyle segments, could highlight sustained differentiation in a crowded market.

These elements tie into broader industry trends, where disruptors like On and Hoka (owned by Deckers Outdoor) are gaining ground by prioritising niche innovations over mass-market saturation. For instance, Hoka’s maximalist soles have mirrored On’s success in appealing to a demographic seeking comfort and performance, collectively eroding the dominance of incumbents.

Industry Context and Competitive Dynamics

The athletic footwear market is undergoing a transformation, with sustainability and vegan materials emerging as key drivers, as noted in a recent OpenPR report on vegan footwear trends projected through 2032. On Holding aligns well with this shift, incorporating recycled materials and eco-friendly designs that appeal to environmentally conscious consumers. This positions the company advantageously against rivals like Nike, which has faced criticism for slower adaptation to these preferences amid its own sales declines.

Comparative analysis reveals On’s outperformance: while Nike reported inventory challenges and a dip in quarterly revenues in recent periods, On’s sales have compounded at rates exceeding 40% annually. This disparity underscores the disruptor’s agility—leveraging celebrity endorsements and targeted marketing to build a cult following without the baggage of legacy operations.

Valuation and Forward Outlook

From a valuation standpoint, On Holding trades at a premium multiple, reflecting its growth narrative. As of the latest data from Yahoo Finance dated 6 August 2025, the stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 50, justified by analyst projections of earnings per share growth exceeding 30% over the next year. Models from firms like UBS forecast revenue to reach new highs in 2025, driven by e-commerce penetration and store expansions.

These estimates, aggregated from sources like Reuters and StockAnalysis, assume no major macroeconomic disruptions. However, risks persist: currency fluctuations, given On’s Swiss franc reporting, and intensifying competition from fast-followers could temper results. Yet, if the earnings confirm sustained momentum, it may catalyse a re-rating, affirming On’s status as a long-term disruptor.

Implications for the Broader Market

On Holding’s performance has ripple effects across the sector, signalling that innovation trumps scale in today’s market. As legacy players like Nike pivot towards cost-cutting and product refreshes—evidenced by their recent conference calls admitting missteps in distribution—disruptors are filling the void. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in the running shoe segment, where On’s market share gains, estimated at 5-7% in key regions per industry checks, challenge the status quo.

Looking ahead, the vegan footwear market’s projected expansion to 2032, as per OpenPR, bodes well for brands emphasising sustainability. On’s alignment with these trends, coupled with its earnings trajectory, suggests it could continue eroding incumbents’ dominance. Investors attuned to such shifts may find opportunities in monitoring how On navigates post-earnings volatility, potentially setting the tone for disruptors in 2025 and beyond.

In a market where complacency invites disruption, On Holding’s upcoming results offer a litmus test for whether this Swiss innovator can maintain its stride against entrenched competition. The numbers will speak volumes about the viability of challenger brands in reshaping athletic footwear.

References

• Deckers Outdoor. (2025). Hoka Performance Footwear Brand Overview.
• Investing.com. (2025, August 5). On Holding stock rating reiterated by UBS citing solid Q2 trends. https://investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/on-holding-stock-rating-reiterated-by-ubs-citing-solid-q2-trends-93CH-4168149
• MarketBeat. (2025, August 5). ON Holding expected to announce quarterly earnings on Tuesday. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/on-onon-expected-to-announce-quarterly-earnings-on-tuesday-2025-08-05/
• OpenPR. (2025). Vegan Footwear Market 2025–2032: Emerging Industry Trends. https://openpr.com/news/4132182/vegan-footwear-market-2025-2032-emerging-industry-trends
• Reuters. (2025). ON Holding AG Company Profile and Analyst Coverage. https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/ONON.N/
• Schaeffers Research. (2025, July 2). Footwear stock has room to run on the charts. https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2025/07/02/footwear-stock-has-room-to-run-on-the-charts
• StockAnalysis. (2025). ONON Financials and Forecasts. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onon/
• StockTitan. (2025). ON to Release Second Quarter 2025 Results on Tuesday, August 12. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ONON/on-to-release-second-quarter-2025-results-on-tuesday-august-12-axtr7yolilzs.html
• The Motley Fool. (2025, August 5). Meet the monster stock that continues to crush the competition. https://fool.com/investing/2025/08/05/meet-the-monster-stock-that-continues-to-crush-the
• WWD. (2025). On Holding Q1 2025 Earnings Raise Guidance. https://wwd.com/footwear-news/shoe-industry-news/on-holding-onon-q1-2025-earnings-raises-guidance-1237704251/
• Yahoo Finance. (2025, August 6). ONON Stock Overview. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ONON/
• X.com. (2025). Relevant Commentary and Earnings Insights. – @eWhispers, @zuckercole, @camerlengo73_2, @Quartr_App, @maibogs