- Ondas Holdings experienced a significant surge in call option volume in August 2025, coinciding with a 100%+ rise in its share price.
- Market enthusiasm followed strategic moves, including a $2.7 million Iron Drone system order and the acquisition of Apeiro Motion.
- Valuation metrics reflect speculative growth potential but underscore continued operational losses and integration risk.
- Investor sentiment leaned bullish overall, with options volume spikes and social media attention signalling momentum interest.
- Model-based forecasts project ONDS reaching up to $9 per share by year-end 2025, dependent on execution and defence sector demand.
In the volatile world of small-cap technology stocks, unusual options trading activity can often serve as a harbinger of significant price movements, drawing investor attention to underlying catalysts. Ondas Holdings Inc., a provider of private wireless networks and drone solutions, experienced just such a phenomenon in August 2025, where a surge in call option volumes preceded a dramatic rally in its share price. This activity, characterised by substantial premiums poured into out-of-the-money calls, coincided with strategic announcements that bolstered market confidence, underscoring how options flow can illuminate broader investment opportunities in the defence and autonomy sectors.
Unpacking the Options Surge
Ondas Holdings, listed on Nasdaq under the ticker ONDS, saw its shares more than double in value over the course of August 2025, climbing from around $2.88 at the start of the month to close at $5.86 on the final trading day, according to Nasdaq real-time data as of 31 August 2025. This represented a staggering intra-month gain, with the stock hitting a 52-week high of $6.19 during the period. The rally was not isolated; it followed a pattern of unusually high options trading volumes, particularly in call options that bet on further upside.
Market data indicated a marked increase in call option purchases, with premiums exceeding typical daily levels for the stock. For instance, significant interest emerged in September expiry calls struck at $2 and December calls at $4, reflecting bullish bets when the stock was trading below $3. These positions paid off handsomely as the share price surged, delivering returns upwards of 300% on some contracts. Such activity is noteworthy because ONDS, with an average daily options volume historically in the low thousands, rarely attracts such concentrated flow, suggesting informed trading or heightened speculative interest.
Analysts attribute this options frenzy to emerging developments in Ondas’s business lines. The company, which specialises in mission-critical wireless communications and autonomous drone systems, announced key acquisitions and partnerships that expanded its footprint in the defence market. Notably, Ondas secured a $2.7 million order for its Iron Drone Raider system, a counter-drone technology, and moved to acquire Apeiro Motion to enhance its ground robotics capabilities. These moves are expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, positioning Ondas to capitalise on growing demand for autonomous defence solutions amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Strategic Expansions Fuel Momentum
The defence sector’s push towards unmanned systems has created fertile ground for companies like Ondas. According to industry reports, global spending on drone and counter-drone technologies is projected to reach $20 billion annually by 2030, driven by military modernisation efforts. Ondas’s Iron Drone system, designed to intercept hostile drones, aligns directly with initiatives like the Pentagon’s emphasis on counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS). This order, announced in late August 2025, not only validates the technology but also signals potential for recurring revenue streams.
Furthermore, the acquisition of a 51% stake in Safe Pro Group (SPO) through a strategic investment in an $8 million private placement added another layer of intrigue. This deal, disclosed mid-month, enhances Ondas’s capabilities in AI-driven drone autonomy, potentially opening doors to new contracts in security and surveillance. Market participants appear to have anticipated these catalysts, as evidenced by the spike in trading volume—reaching over 55 million shares on the last day of August, far exceeding the 10-day average of 47.8 million and the three-month average of 31 million.
Valuation and Market Sentiment
From a valuation perspective, ONDS trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of -23.44 based on analyst estimates for the current year, reflecting ongoing losses with expected earnings per share of -0.24. However, the stock’s price-to-book ratio of 13.35 suggests investors are pricing in substantial growth potential, with book value at $0.44 per share. The market capitalisation stands at approximately $1.61 billion, with 274.5 million shares outstanding, indicating a company still in its growth phase but with a path to profitability through scaling operations.
Sentiment from credible sources remains cautiously optimistic. Analyst ratings average a 1.8 on a scale where 1 is a strong buy, with recent upgrades citing the company’s strategic positioning in high-growth areas. For example, reports from MarketBeat highlighted unusual options volume on 20 August 2025, noting a 317% increase in call options purchased compared to average levels, which preceded a 9.9% single-day jump in the stock price. Ticker Report echoed this, pointing to a 18.16% surge on 22 August amid $270 million in trading volume, ranking it among the most active equities that day.
Investor sentiment, as gauged from financial news outlets like Benzinga, shows a bearish tilt among some high-rolling options traders in late August, with put activity emerging alongside the calls. Yet, the overall flow leaned bullish, with put-to-call ratios around 0.41 in broader market scans, indicating prevailing optimism. StocksToTrade noted positive reactions to the Apeiro Motion acquisition, forecasting enhanced capabilities in defence markets that could drive further upside.
Risks and Forward Outlook
While the rally is impressive—ONDS has climbed 255.21% from its 200-day moving average of $1.65 and 108.70% from its 50-day average of $2.81—investors should temper enthusiasm with caution. The company reported a trailing twelve-month EPS of -0.51, and forward estimates project continued losses, albeit narrowing to -0.25. Execution risks in integrating acquisitions, regulatory hurdles in defence contracting, and broader market volatility could temper gains.
Model-based forecasts from analyst firms suggest potential for ONDS to reach $7–$9 per share by year-end 2025, contingent on securing additional orders and successful integration. A discounted cash flow model, assuming 20% annual revenue growth from defence segments, supports a fair value around $6.50, implying modest upside from current levels. However, if geopolitical events accelerate demand for C-UAS technologies, upside scenarios could push valuations higher.
Implications for Investors
The case of ONDS illustrates a classic interplay between options activity and fundamental catalysts. Unusual flow often signals institutional interest, providing retail investors with early clues to momentum plays. For those eyeing the stock, monitoring upcoming earnings on 12 August 2025—wait, that date has passed, but future quarters will be key—could offer further insights. With the bid-ask spread at 5.83 x 147 / 5.92 x 242 as of market close on 31 August 2025, liquidity appears robust, supporting entry for tactical positions.
In a market where defence tech is gaining prominence, Ondas’s trajectory offers a compelling narrative. Yet, as with any small-cap surge, diversification and due diligence remain paramount. The August rally, underpinned by strategic moves and amplified by options enthusiasm, positions ONDS as a name to watch, potentially rewarding those who align with its autonomous future.
References
- Finance Yahoo. (2025). Ondas Holdings Inc. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ONDS/
- Investing.com. (2025). Ondas Holdings Inc. Equity Overview. Retrieved from https://www.investing.com/equities/ondas
- Finviz. (2025). Ondas Holdings Stock Snapshot. Retrieved from https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ONDS
- Finance Yahoo. (2025). Ondas Holdings News. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ONDS/news/
- StockScan. (2025). ONDS Overview. Retrieved from https://stockscan.io/stocks/ONDS
- StocksToTrade. (2025, August 19). Article on Ondas Holdings. Retrieved from https://stockstotrade.com/news/ondas-holdings-inc-onds-news-2025_08_19/
- Nasdaq. (2025). Market Activity for ONDS. Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/onds
- Ticker Report. (2025). Ondas Trading Up 9.9%. Retrieved from https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/13126652/ondas-nasdaqonds-trading-up-9-9-time-to-buy.html
- StocksToTrade. (2025, August 28). Ondas Holdings Update. Retrieved from https://stockstotrade.com/news/ondas-holdings-inc-onds-news-2025_08_28
- MarketBeat. (2025, August 20). Options Volume Alert for Ondas Holdings. Retrieved from https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/investors-buy-high-volume-of-call-options-on-ondas-nasdaqonds-2025-08-20/
- Timothy Sykes. (2025, August 25). Analysis on Ondas Holdings. Retrieved from https://www.timothysykes.com/news/ondas-holdings-inc-onds-news-2025_08_25/
- AINVEST. (2025). Ondas Surges 18%. Retrieved from https://ainvest.com/news/ondas-holdings-surges-18-270m-volume-spree-ranks-396th-market-activity-2508
- Benzinga. (2025, August 25). Ondas Options Trends. Retrieved from https://benzinga.com/insights/options/25/08/47332701/behind-the-scenes-of-ondas-holdingss-latest-options-trends
- TipRanks. (2025). Ondas Acquires Stake in SPO. Retrieved from https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/ondas-holdings-acquires-51-stake-in-spo
- X.com (multiple accounts). Threads discussing unusual ONDS options or trading activity:
- https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1813688487423656167
- https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1932868280206962753
- https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1843405076725150064
- https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1893067425492484183
- https://x.com/wildlybullish/status/1951943840702562324
- https://x.com/TheBronxViking/status/1945967658354032891
