Oscar Health Projects Fivefold Growth by 2030: EPS to Reach $2.25 in 2027

The sharpest insight into Oscar Health (OSCR) lies in its ambitious earnings trajectory amidst a volatile healthcare insurance landscape. With management projecting an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.25 by 2027, even under conservative assumptions about subsidy policies, the company presents a compelling case for growth. This projection, coupled with a potential stock price target of $78 by 2030 under reasonable growth and valuation multiples, suggests a significant upside from current levels. However, these figures must be contextualised against regulatory risks and market dynamics to assess their plausibility.

Earnings Projections and Subsidy Risks

Oscar Health has positioned itself as a disruptor in the healthcare insurance sector, leveraging technology to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. The company’s projected EPS of $2.25 for 2027 reflects a cautious outlook that assumes the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which have been a tailwind for enrolment growth since their introduction in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan Act. These subsidies, set to lapse at the end of 2025 unless extended by legislation, have boosted affordability for millions of Americans, directly benefiting insurers like Oscar with a strong presence in individual marketplaces.

Historical data provides a benchmark for growth. In Q4 2024 (Oct–Dec), Oscar reported a revenue increase of 45% year-over-year, driven by a 67% compounded annual growth rate since 2021. Net losses have narrowed, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive in the latter half of 2024, indicating operational leverage. If subsidies are not extended, enrolment growth may slow, but Oscar’s high Net Promoter Score (NPS)—among the best in the industry—suggests strong customer retention potential, which could mitigate some downside risks.

Valuation Scenarios for 2027 and 2030

Assuming the $2.25 EPS target for 2027 holds, and applying a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 25—reasonable for a high-growth insurer in a competitive sector—a stock price target of approximately $56 emerges. This is a significant jump from the current trading levels, which hover around $15 as of mid-2025, based on data from Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance. Extending the analysis to 2030, if EPS grows at an annual rate of 20% post-2027, reaching roughly $3.90 by the end of the decade, and a P/E multiple of 20 is applied (reflecting a maturing growth profile), a price target near $78 becomes plausible. This represents a potential fivefold increase from today’s valuation, though such projections hinge on sustained execution and favourable market conditions.

For context, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), a market leader, trades at approximately 17 times forward earnings as of Q2 2025 (Apr–Jun), with projected EPS growth of 10–13% annually through 2030. Oscar’s higher multiple reflects its smaller base and growth potential, but also underscores the risk of overvaluation if growth falters.

Regulatory and Competitive Headwinds

The expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies remains a critical uncertainty. Without legislative action, premium costs for lower-income households could rise by 53% on average, potentially reducing marketplace enrolment by millions, as estimated by the Urban Institute and verified by the Congressional Budget Office. Oscar, with its focus on individual plans, would be disproportionately affected compared to diversified giants like UnitedHealth. However, bipartisan support for subsidy extensions has surfaced in recent congressional discussions, and a resolution before the 2025 deadline could preserve the growth trajectory.

Competition is another factor. While Oscar’s technology-driven approach and customer satisfaction metrics stand out, larger players with deeper pockets could replicate these advantages over time. The healthcare insurance sector is also subject to political volatility, with policy shifts under different administrations potentially altering the playing field. Sentiment on platforms like X, including commentary from accounts such as @thexcapitalist, highlights a mix of optimism about Oscar’s valuation and scepticism about analyst conservatism, reflecting the broader debate on its long-term potential.

Financial Metrics and Comparative Analysis

The table below outlines key financial metrics and projections for Oscar Health, benchmarked against UnitedHealth Group for context. Data is sourced from company filings, Yahoo Finance, and consensus estimates via FactSet as of Q2 2025 (Apr–Jun).

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism with Prudence

Oscar Health’s earnings and valuation projections through 2030 paint an enticing picture for investors willing to stomach uncertainty. The $2.25 EPS target for 2027 and potential $78 stock price by 2030 are achievable if enrolment trends remain robust and operational efficiencies scale as planned. However, the looming expiration of ACA subsidies and intensifying competition introduce material risks that cannot be ignored. Investors should weigh these factors against the backdrop of a healthcare sector that, despite cyclical challenges, remains underpinned by inelastic demand. A touch of dry wit might note that betting on healthcare’s future is as close to a sure thing as one gets in the market, provided the regulatory roulette wheel spins in one’s favour.

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