Key Takeaways
- B. Riley has upgraded its price target for AST SpaceMobile to $60, a significant 36% increase, signalling strong conviction ahead of the 11 August quarterly report.
- The upgrade appears to be predicated on expectations of positive catalysts, such as accelerated satellite deployments, expanded partnerships, or operational milestones not yet priced into the stock.
- AST SpaceMobile’s recent completion of a $575 million convertible notes offering has fortified its balance sheet, providing a non-dilutive funding runway to support its capital-intensive buildout.
- Despite a high valuation and inherent risks, broader analyst sentiment remains bullish, reinforcing the view that the upcoming earnings announcement is a critical test for the company’s growth narrative.
Analyst Upgrades Signal Optimism Ahead of Key Quarterly Reveals
Research analysts rarely lift price targets on speculative tech stocks mere days before a pivotal earnings release unless they harbour strong convictions about forthcoming positives. For AST SpaceMobile, B. Riley’s decision to boost its target from $44 to $60 while maintaining a buy rating underscores a belief in catalysts that could reshape investor perceptions, especially with the quarterly update slated for 11 August. This move invites scrutiny of what might drive such confidence, from operational milestones to financial fortifications that could propel the satellite communications firm beyond current valuations.
Decoding the Upgrade’s Timing and Magnitude
The escalation in B. Riley’s price target represents a 36% hike, a bold adjustment that aligns with AST SpaceMobile’s volatile yet upward trajectory in recent months. Historically, the firm has incrementally raised its sights on the stock: back in June, it adjusted from $36 to $44 following spectrum agreements and partnership expansions, reflecting growing faith in the company’s space-based cellular broadband ambitions. This latest revision to $60, issued on 1 August 2025, amplifies that narrative, suggesting analysts anticipate disclosures in the upcoming report that could validate aggressive growth assumptions. Such pre-earnings optimism often stems from channel checks or insider signals hinting at revenue inflection points or cost efficiencies not yet priced in.
Consider the context of trailing performance. Over the past 52 weeks, AST SpaceMobile’s shares have surged more than 187%, climbing from a low of $17.11 to a high of $60.95, though recent sessions have seen some retracement. As of 1 August 2025, the stock traded around $50.28, down roughly 5.4% from its previous close of $53.17, amid broader market pressures. This positions the new $60 target as a potential 19% upside from current levels, a premium that implies B. Riley sees the quarterly update as a platform for reaffirming or exceeding forward guidance, perhaps tied to satellite deployment timelines or customer adoption metrics.
Implications for the 11 August Quarterly Update
Upgrades like this one thrive on the anticipation of earnings beats or strategic announcements that could eclipse consensus estimates. AST SpaceMobile’s forward earnings per share projections, pegged at -0.71 by analysts, reflect ongoing losses typical of a capital-intensive buildout phase, yet B. Riley’s reiterated buy rating hints at a pivot towards profitability. The firm’s prior FY2026 EPS estimate was lowered to -0.35 in June, but this upgrade suggests a reassessment, possibly factoring in recent capital raises that bolster the balance sheet without excessive dilution.
Indeed, the company’s completion of a $575 million convertible notes offering on 29 July 2025 provides a non-dilutive funding buffer—critical for ramping satellite production and launches. If the 11 August report highlights accelerated timelines for Block 2 BlueBird satellites or expanded partnerships with telecom giants, it could justify the elevated target. Analysts at Roth Capital, who raised their own target to $51 in July while keeping a buy rating, have echoed similar sentiments, pointing to hedge fund interest in AST SpaceMobile as one of the top-performing tech stocks. This convergence of views amplifies the upgrade’s weight, positioning the earnings date as a litmus test for whether positive news—such as regulatory approvals or spectrum acquisitions—materialises to sustain momentum.
Market Sentiment and Historical Precedents
Sentiment from verified financial sources leans bullish, with B. Riley’s action reinforcing a consensus rating of 1.9 (buy) across analysts as of 1 August 2025. Posts on X from investor accounts have buzzed with enthusiasm over the upgrade, often framing it as a precursor to earnings surprises, though such chatter remains speculative and inconclusive. Historically, similar pre-earnings upgrades in the space tech sector have preceded share price pops; for instance, AST SpaceMobile itself has seen gains following previous analyst upgrades tied to contracted launch capacities and funding options.
Analyst Firm | Rating | Price Target | Date of Report |
---|---|---|---|
B. Riley | Buy | $60.00 | August 2025 |
Roth Capital | Buy | $51.00 | July 2025 |
B. Riley | Buy | $44.00 | June 2025 |
Yet, the path isn’t without risks. The stock’s price-to-book ratio of 20.95, based on a book value of $2.40 per share, signals high expectations baked into its $17.5 billion market capitalisation. A miss on 11 August could trigger volatility, but B. Riley’s confidence appears rooted in tangible progress, like the firm’s touting of positioning, navigation, and timing capabilities ahead of launches. Comparing to the 200-day average price of $29.14, the current level represents a 72.5% premium, underscoring how successive upgrades have tracked operational wins rather than hype alone.
Potential Catalysts Lurking in the Report
What might the positive news entail? Model-based forecasts project revenue growth accelerating by 2027 as more satellites enter orbit, potentially turning earnings positive. B. Riley’s $60 target likely embeds assumptions of partnerships yielding initial revenues sooner than expected, perhaps detailed in the quarterly filing. The firm’s June note on spectrum gains with Ligado Networks highlighted undervalued assets; an update confirming integration could be the spark.
Moreover, with shares outstanding at 258.45 million and average three-month volume exceeding 13.9 million, liquidity supports swift reactions to news. If the report reveals advancements in 5G connectivity proofs-of-concept—building on earlier demonstrations—the upgrade could prove prescient. Analysts at The Motley Fool, in a July analysis, noted AST SpaceMobile’s edge over competitors like Starlink through key telecom tie-ups, forecasting a path to a $50-100 billion market cap if execution holds. This aligns with B. Riley’s view, where the pre-earnings timing acts as a vote of confidence in management’s ability to deliver.
Weighing the Risks Against the Reward
While the upgrade paints a rosy picture, investors must temper enthusiasm with realism. AST SpaceMobile’s trailing twelve-month EPS of -1.98 underscores the burn rate in pursuing global coverage, and any delays in launches could undermine the thesis. Still, the $60 target, a significant leap from B. Riley’s earlier stances, suggests the firm has crunched numbers on mitigated risks, perhaps via the recent notes offering that extends runway to 2027. As the 11 August date approaches, the market’s sessional trading— with today’s volume at over 2 million shares—hints at positioning for upside, even as the price dipped intraday to $49.96 before recovering.
In essence, this upgrade isn’t mere optimism; it’s a calculated bet on disclosures that could elevate AST SpaceMobile from speculative play to sector leader. Whether the quarterly update delivers the anticipated positives will determine if $60 becomes a floor or a fleeting peak.
References
- B. Riley. (2025, August 1). AST SpaceMobile Price Target Raised to $60.00/Share by B. Riley. Yahoo Finance. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ast-spacemobile-price-target-raised-131520861.html
- B. Riley. (2025, June 16). AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) Given New $44.00 Price Target at B. Riley. MarketBeat. Retrieved from https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/ast-spacemobile-nasdaqasts-given-new-4400-price-target-at-b-riley-2025-06-16/
- B. Riley. (2025, June 18). B. Riley Decreases Earnings Estimates for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS). MarketBeat. Retrieved from https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/b-riley-decreases-earnings-estimates-for-ast-spacemobile-2025-06-18/
- Frankel, M. (2025, July 11). Could Buying AST SpaceMobile Today Set You Up for a 10-Bagger? The Motley Fool. Retrieved from https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/11/could-buying-ast-spacemobile-today-set-you-up-for/
- Roth Capital. (2025, July 15). Roth Capital Raised Firm’s PT on AST SpaceMobile to $51 from $45. Yahoo Finance. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roth-capital-raised-firm-pt-184418888.html
- SpaceInvestor_D. (2025, August 1). [Post on ASTS upgrade]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/SpaceInvestor_D/status/1884958671085482240
- Spac D. O. O. (@spacanpanman). (2025). [Posts on ASTS]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/spacanpanman
- TipRanks. (2025, July 29). AST SpaceMobile Completes $575M Convertible Notes Offering. Retrieved from https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/ast-spacemobile-completes-575m-convertible-notes-offering