Cadeler A/S (CDLR) presents a compelling investment opportunity within the rapidly expanding offshore wind energy sector. The company’s specialised fleet, robust contract backlog, and strategic positioning to capitalise on the global energy transition create a strong foundation for long-term growth.
Executive Summary
Recommendation: Buy
Price Target (12-month): DKK 370.00
Upside Potential: 45% (based on closing price of DKK 255.00 on 23 October 2023)1
Investment Thesis: Cadeler’s dominant position in the offshore wind turbine installation market, coupled with a multi-year contract backlog and favourable industry dynamics, positions the company for significant earnings growth and market share expansion. The current valuation presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the secular growth of renewable energy.
Industry Overview
The offshore wind industry is poised for exponential growth, driven by global decarbonisation efforts and supportive government policies. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that global offshore wind capacity will reach 270 GW by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 16% from 2022 levels.2 This growth is underpinned by declining costs, technological advancements in turbine size and efficiency, and increasing demand for clean energy sources.
Company Analysis
Cadeler operates a fleet of specialised jack-up vessels crucial for installing next-generation offshore wind turbines. The company’s focus on large-scale projects and its technically advanced vessels provide a competitive edge in securing lucrative contracts. Cadeler boasts a strong track record of project execution and maintains high utilisation rates for its fleet. Key strengths include:
- Specialised Fleet: Cadeler’s vessels are designed to handle the increasing size and complexity of offshore wind turbines, a key differentiator in the market.
- Strong Backlog: As of Q2 2025, Cadeler reported a backlog of €2.2 billion, providing revenue visibility for the coming years.3
- Experienced Management Team: Cadeler’s management team has a proven track record in the offshore wind industry.
Investment Thesis
Our investment thesis rests on three pillars:
- Secular Growth Tailwinds: The offshore wind industry’s strong growth trajectory provides a robust backdrop for Cadeler’s continued expansion.
- Competitive Advantage: Cadeler’s specialized fleet and technical expertise create a barrier to entry, enabling the company to secure premium contracts and maintain higher margins than competitors.
- Attractive Valuation: Despite its growth prospects, Cadeler trades at a discount to peers on key valuation metrics, presenting an attractive entry point for investors.
Valuation & Forecasts
We employ a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine Cadeler’s intrinsic value. Our base case assumes a revenue CAGR of 25% over the next five years, driven by strong backlog conversion and new contract wins. We project EBITDA margins to expand to 55% by 2027, reflecting operating leverage and pricing power. Our DCF model, using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9% and a terminal growth rate of 3%, yields a target price of DKK 370.00.
| Year | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (€m) | 280 | 350 | 438 | 547 |
| EBITDA (€m) | 140 | 193 | 241 | 301 |
Note: Forecasts are based on management guidance, industry reports, and our internal analysis.
We also conducted a comparable company analysis, benchmarking Cadeler against other offshore wind service providers. This analysis supports our DCF valuation and reinforces our view that Cadeler is undervalued relative to its peers. The company’s forward P/E ratio is lower than the industry average, despite its superior growth prospects.
Risks
Key risks to our investment thesis include:
- Project Execution Risks: Delays or cost overruns in offshore wind projects could negatively impact Cadeler’s revenue and profitability.
- Competition: Increased competition from new entrants or existing players could pressure margins.
- Regulatory Changes: Changes in government policies or regulations could affect the demand for offshore wind energy.
- Macroeconomic Factors: A global economic slowdown could negatively impact investment in renewable energy projects.
We believe these risks are manageable given Cadeler’s strong track record, competitive advantages, and the long-term growth drivers of the offshore wind industry.
Recommendation
We initiate coverage on Cadeler A/S with a Buy recommendation and a 12-month price target of DKK 370.00. We believe that Cadeler’s strategic positioning, robust backlog, and attractive valuation make it a compelling investment opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the growth of the offshore wind market. The company’s strong fundamentals and favourable industry dynamics support our positive outlook.
1 Euronext closing price for CDLR on 23 October 2023.
2 Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Offshore Wind Market Outlook 2023”.
3 Cadeler A/S, Q2 2025 Interim Report.
