Mirion Technologies (NYSE: MIR) occupies a crucial niche in the radiation detection and measurement sector, serving the nuclear power, medical, and defence industries. This report examines Mirion’s investment prospects, considering its market positioning, competitive landscape, financial performance, and potential risks. We offer a comprehensive valuation and forecast, culminating in an investment recommendation.
Executive Summary
Mirion Technologies receives a BUY rating with a 12-month price target of $12.50, implying approximately 30% upside potential. This assessment is based on Mirion’s robust market position within the radiation detection and measurement industry, expected to reach $7.9 billion by 2030[1]. The company’s accelerating profitability, demonstrated by an 18% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025[2], further supports this positive outlook. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 earnings and expanding global nuclear energy investments. However, tariff exposures and leverage ratios warrant close monitoring.
Industry Overview
The radiation detection and measurement market is experiencing steady growth driven by several key factors. The resurgence of nuclear power, with over 60 reactors under construction globally[3], fuels demand for Mirion’s solutions in reactor monitoring and waste management. Growth in cancer therapy and advancements in medical imaging also contribute to demand for Mirion’s dosimetry products. Lastly, heightened security concerns and the increasing focus on CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) defence programmes further bolster the need for sophisticated radiation detection technologies. These factors contribute to the industry’s projected 6.1% CAGR.[1]
Company Analysis
Mirion operates across three primary segments: Nuclear Energy (38% of 2024 revenue), Medical (32%), and Defence/Research (30%)[2]. This diversification mitigates risk and provides exposure to multiple growth drivers. Mirion benefits from a strong market position, particularly in nuclear decommissioning projects, aided by long-standing customer relationships (average tenure of 14 years)[4]. The company derives approximately 45% of its revenue from North America, 35% from Europe, and 20% from the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a global reach.[2]
Competitive Advantages
Mirion possesses several competitive advantages. Firstly, stringent regulatory requirements necessitate certifications from bodies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), creating significant barriers to entry. Mirion’s extensive patent portfolio (23 patents related to radiation detection) positions it well in this regulated landscape. Secondly, high switching costs, stemming from calibration dependencies and integrated systems, further solidify Mirion’s customer base. Lastly, MirionIQ®, the company’s proprietary analytics platform, leverages data from its installed base of over 37,000 devices, creating a valuable network effect.
Financial Performance
Mirion demonstrated strong financial performance in Q1 2025, reporting revenue of $202 million (+4.9% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $46.7 million (+18% YoY)[2]. The company also achieved positive GAAP EPS, compared to a loss in the prior-year period. Gross margins improved by 120 basis points to 48.3% due to supply chain optimisations. Management reaffirmed its 2025 guidance despite ongoing tariff challenges.
Investment Thesis
Our investment thesis rests on Mirion’s dominant position in the expanding radiation detection market, underpinned by strong secular tailwinds, multiple near-term catalysts, and an attractive valuation. The company’s essential role in critical infrastructure projects and its diversified revenue streams further enhance its appeal. We believe Mirion is well-positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for radiation detection solutions across its core markets.
Valuation & Forecasts
Our 12-month price target of $12.50 is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Key assumptions include a 7% revenue growth rate in 2025, leading to $860 million in revenue, and a 24.7% Adjusted EBITDA margin, translating to $212 million in Adjusted EBITDA.[2] We assume a terminal growth rate of 3.5% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.8%. A sensitivity analysis incorporating various WACC and terminal growth rate scenarios is provided below.
| Scenario | WACC | Terminal Growth Rate | Implied Share Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 9.8% | 3.5% | $12.50 |
| Upside Case | 9.0% | 4.0% | $14.20 |
| Downside Case | 10.5% | 3.0% | $10.90 |
Risks
Key risks for Mirion include: reliance on government funding for certain projects, potential regulatory changes, exposure to tariff fluctuations, and competition from existing players and new entrants. A downside scenario could involve a combination of margin compression due to increased competition or cost pressures, and slower growth than anticipated in its key markets, particularly if governmental nuclear energy projects are delayed or cancelled.
Recommendation
We recommend a BUY rating for Mirion Technologies with a 12-month price target of $12.50. This represents a significant upside potential based on our valuation and the company’s compelling growth prospects. We believe Mirion’s strategic position in a market experiencing secular tailwinds, combined with its robust financial performance and competitive advantages, makes it an attractive investment opportunity.
Citations:
[1] Source Needed for Market Size and CAGR projections
[2] Mirion Technologies Q1 2025 Earnings Release
[3] Source Needed for Number of Reactors Under Construction
[4] Source Needed for Customer Tenure Data
