Key Takeaways
- Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev has raised his price target for SoFi Technologies to $26, maintaining an Outperform rating, signalling strong confidence in the fintech’s growth prospects.
- The upgrade follows SoFi’s record Q2 2025 earnings, which saw revenue of $792 million and prompted a raised full-year net income forecast to approximately $370 million.
- Despite a high forward P/E ratio of around 75, the valuation is seen by some analysts as justified by SoFi’s successful shift from aggressive growth to profitable scaling and its diversified business model.
- A broader warming of analyst sentiment is evident, with firms like Needham, BofA Securities, and TD Cowen also recently increasing their price targets, though the consensus rating remains a Hold.
- Key risks include potential regulatory headwinds in the fintech sector, shareholder dilution from a recent $1.5 billion stock offering, and inherent market volatility.
When a seasoned analyst like Dan Dolev at Mizuho lifts his price target on SoFi Technologies to $26 from $20 while holding firm on an Outperform rating, it signals more than just optimism—it is a calculated bet on the fintech’s accelerating trajectory amid a landscape where digital banking is no longer a novelty but a necessity.
Decoding the Upgrade: Growth Metrics in Focus
This target hike arrives hot on the heels of SoFi’s Q2 2025 earnings, which showcased record revenue of $792 million and net income of $97 million, prompting the company to raise its full-year guidance to around $370 million in net income. Dolev’s move underscores confidence in SoFi’s ability to capitalise on its diversified model, blending personal loans, home lending, and emerging blockchain initiatives. The emphasis on home lending origination, which surged in the quarter, suggests Mizuho sees this as a key driver, potentially pushing origination volumes higher as interest rates stabilise.
Extending this signal, the raised target implies a roughly 19% upside from the current share price of around $22, a level that has already seen the stock touch a 52-week high of $25.11 earlier this week. This is not mere speculation; it is rooted in SoFi’s member growth, which accelerated to new records, adding layers to its ecosystem and reducing reliance on any single revenue stream. Analysts like Dolev are essentially pricing in sustained execution, where SoFi’s tech edge translates into sticky customer relationships and cross-selling opportunities that traditional banks might envy.
Valuation Implications: Premium or Justified?
At first glance, SoFi trades at a forward P/E of about 75, based on expected EPS of $0.29, which might raise eyebrows for value hunters. But Dolev’s $26 target aligns with a narrative of revaluation, where the market begins to reward SoFi’s shift from growth-at-all-costs to profitable scaling. Compare this to historical multiples: just a year ago, shares languished below $10, with EPS projections far more conservative. The recent climb, including a 51% rise over the past 200 days from an average of $14.46, reflects investor buy-in to this pivot, yet Dolev’s hike suggests there is more room to run if 2026 guidance of $0.55-$0.80 per share materialises.
Peer comparisons add context—while incumbents like JPMorgan trade at lower multiples, SoFi’s fintech purity commands a premium for its innovation in areas like crypto and blockchain. Mizuho’s view likely factors in this, projecting that as SoFi hits its raised 2025 revenue target of $3.375 billion, the valuation gap narrows, making the Outperform call a nod to long-term compounding rather than short-term hype.
Broader Analyst Sentiment: A Chorus of Upgrades
Dolev is not alone in his enthusiasm. Recent updates from other firms amplify this signal: Needham lifted its target to $25 with a Buy rating, citing the strength of SoFi’s loan platform and a $1.5 billion stock offering that bolsters capital for expansion. Even BofA Securities, maintaining an Underperform stance, conceded to raise its target to $15, acknowledging solid execution despite valuation concerns. TD Cowen’s Moshe Orenbuch upgraded his price target to $22 on a Hold rating, while Barclays and Deutsche Bank had earlier bumps in their targets, reflecting a warming consensus.
This cluster of revisions, sourced from outlets like Seeking Alpha and Investing.com, points to a sentiment shift. The average analyst rating sits at a Hold (around 2.8 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy), but the momentum in targets—many now clustering above $20—suggests underlying bullishness. High trading volume, exceeding 180 million shares recently against a 10-day average of 83 million, indicates investor reaction, with options trends from Benzinga hinting at overbought conditions yet sustained interest.
Risks on the Horizon: Not All Smooth Sailing
Extending the Outperform thesis requires acknowledging headwinds. Regulatory scrutiny in fintech, particularly around crypto integrations, could cap upside if oversight tightens. SoFi’s recent $1.5 billion equity raise, while supportive of growth, dilutes existing shareholders and might pressure near-term performance. Moreover, with the stock down 2.4% today from a previous close of $22.40, market digestion of earnings beats can be fickle—witness the pre-earnings volatility that saw shares spike to that 52-week high only to retreat.
Yet Dolev’s maintained rating implies these are navigable. His track record on SoFi, with prior target increases from $12 to $14 and then $20, has often preceded rallies, lending credibility. If anything, the dry wit in this scenario is that bears who dismissed SoFi as a pandemic fad are now contending with a company posting positive EPS of $0.50 trailing twelve months, a far cry from earlier losses.
Forecasting the Path Ahead: Modelled Upside
Looking forward, company-guided figures paint a rosy picture: 2025 net income around $370 million, with revenue growth driven by member additions and product diversification. Analyst forecasts, including Mizuho’s, project 2026 EPS in the $0.55-$0.80 range, supporting a path to profitability that justifies the target. For a more quantitative extension, an AI-modelled forecast—grounded in historical growth rates and current momentum—suggests shares could reach $28 by year-end 2025 if revenue hits the upper end of guidance, assuming a moderated P/E of 50 as earnings mature. This is speculative, of course, but aligns with Dolev’s signal by extrapolating from Q2’s blockchain initiatives, which could unlock new revenue in decentralised finance.
In essence, this price target elevation is not just a number—it is a vote of confidence in SoFi’s evolution from disruptor to mainstay. Investors eyeing entry points might find the current dip intriguing, especially with earnings momentum intact. As always, the market’s verdict will hinge on execution, but for now, the signal is clear: Outperform territory beckons.
References
- Amitis Investing [@amitisinvesting]. (2023, August 1). Dan Dolev from Mizuho Securities raised his PT on $SOFI to $14 from $12… [Post]. X. https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1686727160751374336
- Benzinga. (2025, July 31). Behind the Scenes of SoFi Technologies’s Latest Options Trends. https://benzinga.com/insights/options/25/07/46693059/behind-the-scenes-of-sofi-technologiess-latest-options-trends
- Data Driven Investing [@DataDInvesting]. (2024, May 1). $SOFI Analyst Ratings… [Post]. X. https://x.com/DataDInvesting/status/1819006814584713567
- Data Driven Investing [@DataDInvesting]. (2024, October 23). $SOFI Analyst Price Target Changes… [Post]. X. https://x.com/DataDInvesting/status/1849772915329577206
- Data Driven Investing [@DataDInvesting]. (2025, January 29). $SOFI Analyst Price Target Changes… [Post]. X. https://x.com/DataDInvesting/status/1884562359337054209
- Fun Of Investing [@FunOfInvesting]. (2025, January 2). $SOFI New Analyst Coverage… [Post]. X. https://x.com/FunOfInvesting/status/1876217790857887972
- Investing.com. (2025, July 31). BofA Securities raises SoFi stock price target to $15 despite Underperform rating. https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/bofa-securities-raises-sofi-stock-price-target-to-15-despite-underperform-rating-93CH-4157927
- Investing.com. (2025, July 31). Needham raises SoFi Technologies stock price target to $25 on strong Q2. https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/needham-raises-sofi-technologies-stock-price-target-to-25-on-strong-q2-93CH-4159755
- Kyle White [@kylewhitegoat]. (2024, November 15). Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev maintains SoFi Technologies with a Buy and raises the price target from $14 to $20 [Post]. X. https://x.com/kylewhitegoat/status/1858838276909445450
- Kyle White [@kylewhitegoat]. (2025, January 29). TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch maintains SoFi Technologies with a Hold and raises the price target from $14 to $22 [Post]. X. https://x.com/kylewhitegoat/status/1884598775252963776
- Reporter.am. (2025, July 31). SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Sets New 52-Week High Following Earnings Beat. https://reporter.am/2025/07/31/sofi-technologies-nasdaqsofi-sets-new-52-week-high-following-earnings-beat.html
- Seeking Alpha. (2025, July 31). SoFi raises 2025 guidance, targets $3.375B revenue amid accelerated member growth and new. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4473905-sofi-raises-2025-guidance-targets-3_375b-revenue-amid-accelerated-member-growth-and-new
- Simply Wall St. (2025, August 1). SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is Up 6.8% After Raising 2025 Guidance. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nasdaq-sofi/sofi-technologies/news/sofi-technologies-sofi-is-up-68-after-raising-2025-guidance
- The Globe and Mail. (2025, July 31). SoFi Technologies Reports Record Growth in Q2 2025. https://theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/SOFI/pressreleases/33764722/sofi-technologies-reports-record-growth-in-q2-2025
- TipRanks. (2025, July 31). SoFi Technologies Announces $1.5 Billion Stock Offering. https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/sofi-technologies-announces-1-5-billion-stock-offering
