US Controls 69% of Global AI Computing Power in 2025, Signalling Major Growth in Semiconductors and Energy Sectors

The United States holds a commanding 69 per cent share of global AI computing power, underscoring its pivotal role in shaping the future of artificial intelligence and its economic ripple effects. This dominance, driven by investments in advanced hardware and infrastructure, positions American firms at the forefront of AI innovation, with profound implications for investors eyeing sectors from semiconductors to data centres.

The Landscape of AI Compute Dominance

As of mid-2025, the US controls approximately 69 per cent of the world’s AI computing capacity, according to analyses of supercomputer performance and data centre deployments. This figure reflects the concentration of high-performance GPUs, specialised AI chips, and expansive cloud infrastructure within American borders. Leading tech giants have poured billions into scaling these resources, outpacing rivals in regions like Asia and Europe.

This lead stems from a combination of private sector innovation and supportive policy frameworks. For instance, the US has benefited from early-mover advantages in chip design, with companies developing cutting-edge processors that power the most advanced AI models. Reports from think tanks such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlight how export controls and strategic investments have helped maintain this edge, even as global competition intensifies.

Comparatively, China accounts for around 15 per cent of AI supercomputing performance, per data from Epoch AI as of May 2025, while other nations like Germany, Japan, and France hold marginal shares. This disparity creates a digital divide, where access to compute resources increasingly determines a country’s AI capabilities and, by extension, its economic productivity.

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

The concentration of AI compute in the US carries significant geopolitical weight. Export controls implemented by the US government, as detailed in Reuters coverage from January 2025, aim to restrict the flow of advanced chips to adversaries, effectively divvying up global access to high-end technology. This strategy not only safeguards national security but also bolsters the competitive moat for US-based firms.

Economically, this dominance translates into outsized gains for investors. AI-driven productivity could add trillions to global GDP by 2030, with the US poised to capture a substantial portion. Historical trends show that nations leading in compute infrastructure have reaped benefits in related industries; for example, the US’s early dominance in cloud computing has fuelled the rise of hyperscalers, whose capital expenditures now rival national defence budgets in scale.

Analyst forecasts suggest that US AI capex could sustain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50–70 per cent through the decade, potentially pushing total global AI capacity beyond 100 gigawatts by 2030. Assuming a consistent US share, this implies over 50 gigawatts within the country, equivalent to roughly 5 per cent of US power generation. Such projections, drawn from triangulations of chip inventories and facility plans, underscore the investment opportunities in energy infrastructure and semiconductors.

Investment Angles in AI Compute

For investors, the US’s 69 per cent grip on AI compute illuminates several high-potential areas. Semiconductors stand out, as the demand for GPUs and AI accelerators surges. Firms specialising in these components have seen their valuations soar, supported by multi-year trends in AI adoption. Goldman Sachs reports from 2023 noted the energy efficiency challenges of scaling GPUs, yet efficiency gains—such as 60 per cent reductions in power use for newer data centre chips—mitigate some risks.

Data centres represent another cornerstone. The shift towards AI-optimised facilities is reshaping energy consumption patterns, with projections indicating AI could account for up to 4.4 per cent of global electricity by 2040. The US, driving half of this demand growth, offers fertile ground for investments in utilities and renewable energy providers that support these operations.

Sentiment among analysts remains bullish on US AI leadership. According to Brookings Institution insights from September 2024, while export controls pose tensions with innovation, they ultimately reinforce America’s position. Verified sources like the Hudson Institute echo this, emphasising the need for focused strategies to win the AI race.

Risks and Counterbalances

Yet, this dominance is not without vulnerabilities. The scramble for compute, as outlined in American Affairs Journal in May 2024, raises questions about commoditisation and competition. If AI intelligence becomes ubiquitous, the moat provided by compute could erode, particularly if open-weight models from regions like China gain traction.

Energy constraints also loom large. AI’s voracious appetite for power—projected to surge globally—could strain grids, especially in the US where data centres are proliferating. Dry humour aside, it’s as if AI models are auditioning for the role of the world’s hungriest consumer, devouring electricity at a pace that outstrips efficiency gains.

Model-based forecasts from GovAI in February 2024 suggest that governing compute access will be key to policy goals, potentially leading to tighter regulations that could impact investor returns. Investors should monitor these developments, balancing the allure of growth with geopolitical risks.

Broader Market Implications

Beyond direct plays, the US’s AI compute lead influences broader markets. Electrification trends, as highlighted in recent analyses, align with hyperscaler spending plans totalling hundreds of billions in 2025 alone—comparable to entire defence budgets in Europe. This capex boom supports ancillary sectors like construction and networking equipment.

Globally, the divide in compute access could exacerbate inequalities, with emerging markets lagging. However, US leadership fosters alliances, as seen in frameworks like the AI Diffusion Rule from the Biden administration, analysed by CSIS in February 2025, which aims to secure allies’ positions while preempting drift to competitors.

In summary, the United States’ 69 per cent control of global AI computing power cements its status as the AI superpower, driving investment theses across tech and energy. While risks persist, the trajectory points to sustained advantages for those positioned in this ecosystem.

References

• Brookings Institution. (2024, September). The tension between AI export control and U.S. AI innovation. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-tension-between-ai-export-control-and-u-s-ai-innovation/
• Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2025, February). AI diffusion framework: Securing US AI leadership while preempting strategic drift. https://www.csis.org/analysis/ai-diffusion-framework-securing-us-ai-leadership-while-preempting-strategic-drift
• Epoch AI. (2025, May). AI supercomputers performance share by country. https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-supercomputers-performance-share-by-country
• Goldman Sachs. (2023). The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-generative-world-order-ai-geopolitics-and-power
• Governance of AI (GovAI). (2024, February). Computing power and the governance of AI. https://www.governance.ai/analysis/computing-power-and-the-governance-of-ai
• Hudson Institute. (n.d.). AI, national security, and the global technology race: How US export controls define advantage. https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/ai-national-security-global-technology-race-how-us-export-controls-define-nury-turkel
• Just Security. (n.d.). Competition, not control, is key to winning the global AI race. https://justsecurity.org/100130/competition-not-control-is-key-to-winning-the-global-ai-race
• Observer Research Foundation. (n.d.). Three vectors of US AI dominance: Innovation, infrastructure, and security. https://orfonline.org/expert-speak/three-vectors-of-us-ai-dominance-innovation-infrastructure-and-security
• Reuters. (2025, January 13). US tightens its grip on AI chip flows across globe. https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-tightens-its-grip-ai-chip-flows-across-globe-2025-01-13/
• Visive AI News. (n.d.). AI computing power creates a global digital divide. https://news.visive.ai/ai-computing-power-creates-a-global-digital-divide
• American Affairs Journal. (2024, May). The scramble for AI computing power. https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2024/05/the-scramble-for-ai-computing-power/
• Behorizon. (n.d.). The age of AI in the U.S.–China great power competition: Strategic implications, risks and global governance. https://behorizon.org/the-age-of-ai-in-u-s-china-great-power-competition-strategic-implications-risks-and-global-governance
• Craddock, M. (n.d.). Inside the US–China race for technological supremacy. https://medium.com/@mcraddock/inside-the-us-china-race-for-technological-supremacy-52cb5c3df063
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