Key Takeaways
- The U.S. strategy of exporting its full AI technology stack aims to entrench global influence through integrated systems spanning hardware to cloud services.
- Executive policies under the Trump administration promote AI exportation to embed American standards globally and bolster domestic R&D funding via increased international demand.
- Historical parallels from the software and semiconductor industries suggest that widespread adoption of U.S. AI platforms could secure enduring technological dominance.
- Investor sentiment remains largely positive, with projected growth across semiconductor, cloud, and energy sectors; however, risks linked to geopolitical volatility persist.
- Policies are evolving to mitigate intellectual property leakage and ensure security while aligning AI governance with allies through frameworks like the USMCA.
In the intensifying global race for artificial intelligence supremacy, the United States stands to gain a decisive edge by promoting the widespread adoption of its technology stack abroad. This approach, emphasising the export of integrated AI systems—from chips and software to data infrastructure—could solidify American leadership, outpacing rivals like China through economic leverage and innovation diffusion rather than isolationism.
The Strategic Imperative of Exporting the American AI Stack
As geopolitical tensions mount, the Trump administration has pivoted towards policies that actively encourage the global deployment of U.S.-developed AI technologies. Recent executive actions, such as the establishment of the American AI Exports Program, aim to flood international markets with full-stack solutions, encompassing hardware, algorithms, and applications. This strategy recognises that dominance in AI is not merely about domestic innovation but about setting the de facto standards that shape worldwide development.
By fostering dependence on American components, the U.S. can create a self-reinforcing cycle: greater adoption drives demand for U.S. semiconductors and cloud services, funding further R&D and maintaining a technological moat. Analysts at the Brookings Institution have noted that such diffusion could enhance North American competitiveness under frameworks like the USMCA, positioning the region as a hub for AI innovation. This contrasts with more restrictive approaches, where export controls might stifle growth by limiting market access.
Lessons from Historical Tech Dominance
History offers parallels in the semiconductor and software sectors. In the 1980s and 1990s, American firms like Intel and Microsoft achieved global hegemony by exporting widely, embedding their architectures into ecosystems that became indispensable. Today, AI follows a similar path. The scaling laws of AI—where larger models trained on vast datasets yield exponential performance gains—favour entities with access to global compute resources and data flows. Encouraging allies and emerging markets to build on U.S. stacks ensures that American IP underpins these advancements, amplifying returns on investment.
A 2019 report from the Center for Data Innovation highlighted that the U.S. led in AI talent and venture funding, but warned that without proactive diffusion, competitors could erode this advantage. Fast-forward to 2025, and the landscape has evolved: China’s “Digital Silk Road” initiatives seek to export its own AI infrastructure, yet U.S. policies now counter this by incentivising adoption of American alternatives, potentially tipping the balance.
Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and Economic Growth
The economic ramifications are profound. Promoting the American AI stack abroad could generate trillions in export revenues, bolstering sectors from chip manufacturing to energy-intensive data centres. Microsoft’s advocacy for harnessing AI as “today’s electricity” underscores the potential for transformative growth, with projections suggesting that AI could add up to $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030, according to PwC analyses from earlier this decade. For the U.S., capturing a lion’s share requires not just invention but deployment at scale.
Investor sentiment, as gauged by recent analyses from the Atlantic Council, views these policies favourably, with experts predicting boosts to tech stocks and energy infrastructure. Marked as positive sentiment from verified sources, this optimism stems from reduced regulatory burdens and targeted incentives, potentially accelerating AI infrastructure buildouts. However, risks linger: over-reliance on exports could expose vulnerabilities if geopolitical shifts disrupt supply chains.
Navigating the China Challenge
China’s aggressive AI push, including open-source models like DeepSeek, poses a direct threat. Yet, by exporting its stack, the U.S. can dilute Beijing’s influence. Policies directing the Department of Commerce to facilitate global AI deployments aim to create a “lopsided” competition, as articulated in Foreign Affairs discussions from 2025. This involves not just tariffs on rival imports but strategic equity stakes in key firms to secure hardware leadership.
Analyst-led forecasts, drawing from models like those at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, suggest that if the U.S. achieves 70% global market share in AI compute by 2030—up from estimates around 50% in 2023—it could lock in a decade-long lead. Such models factor in variables like energy availability and talent migration, assuming continued policy support.
Investment Angles and Risks
For investors, this theme illuminates opportunities in U.S. firms at the forefront of AI exports. Companies involved in full-stack solutions stand to benefit from administration-backed initiatives, potentially seeing revenue growth from international partnerships. A table below outlines key sectors and their projected impacts based on historical trends and policy directions:
| Sector | Key Drivers | Projected Growth (Analyst Models, 2025–2030) |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | Export incentives, tariff protections | 15–20% CAGR |
| Cloud Computing | Global data centre expansion | 18–25% CAGR |
| Energy Infrastructure | AI-driven power demands | 12–18% CAGR |
These forecasts are labelled as derived from consensus analyst models, incorporating data up to 2025. Dry humour aside, betting against American ingenuity in this race might be as foolhardy as shorting the internet in 1995—yet vigilance is key, as regulatory reversals or breakthroughs from rivals could upend the narrative.
Broader implications extend to national security. AI’s dual-use nature means that controlling the stack equates to influence over military and economic tools. The White House’s 2025 actions, including executive orders on AI exports, reflect this, aiming to build alliances through technology sharing while safeguarding core IP.
Potential Headwinds and Mitigation Strategies
Challenges include intellectual property theft and uneven international adoption. To counter this, policies emphasise secure, modular stacks that allow customisation without compromising U.S. advantages. Moreover, collaboration with allies via frameworks like the USMCA could standardise AI governance, reducing fragmentation.
In summary, the push for global reliance on the American AI technology stack represents a savvy geopolitical play, blending economic incentives with strategic foresight. As the race accelerates, this diffusion strategy could ensure the U.S. not only leads but defines the future of AI, delivering outsized returns for investors attuned to the theme.
References
- Atlantic Council. (2025). Experts react: What Trump’s new AI action plan means for tech, energy, the economy and more. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-what-trumps-new-ai-action-plan-means-for-tech-energy-the-economy-and-more/
- Brookings Institution. (n.d.). The global AI race: Will US innovation lead or lag? https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-global-ai-race-will-us-innovation-lead-or-lag/
- Brookings Institution. (n.d.). The role of policies on technology and AI for innovation and increased competitiveness in North America. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-role-of-policies-on-technology-and-ai-for-innovation-and-increased-competitiveness-in-north-america/
- Center for Data Innovation. (2019). Who is winning the AI race: China, the EU, or the United States? https://datainnovation.org/2019/08/who-is-winning-the-ai-race-china-the-eu-or-the-united-states/
- Foreign Affairs. (2025). What America gets wrong about the AI race. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/what-america-gets-wrong-about-ai-race
- GovWhitePapers. (n.d.). Executive Order 14320: Promoting the export of the American AI technology stack. https://govwhitepapers.com/whitepapers/executive-order-14320-promoting-the-export-of-the-american-ai-technology-stack
- IAPS. (n.d.). Promoting the Stack: Trump’s AI Export Incentive Program explained. https://www.iaps.ai/research/promoting-the-stack-trumps-ai-export-incentive-program-explained
- JDSupra. (n.d.). Promoting the export of the American AI technology stack. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/promoting-the-export-of-the-american-ai-6275313/
- Microsoft. (2025, January 3). The golden opportunity for American AI. https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportunity-for-american-ai/
- Modern Diplomacy. (2025, August 1). U.S. tech titans can win the AI race with smart stakes, global stacks. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/08/01/u-s-tech-titans-can-win-the-ai-race-with-smart-stakes-global-stacks/
- Stripes. (2025, August 18). Diffusing AI stack protects American security. https://www.stripes.com/opinion/2025-08-18/diffusing-ai-stack-protects-american-security-18801831.html
- The Cipher Brief. (n.d.). Global AI leadership. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/global-ai-leadership
- White House. (2025). Promoting the export of the American AI technology stack. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/promoting-the-export-of-the-american-ai-technology-stack/
- Geeky Gadgets. (n.d.). AI competition: US vs China technology race. https://geeky-gadgets.com/ai-competition-us-vs-china-technology-race
