Key Takeaways
- The potential $7 billion merger between Grab and GoTo is jeopardised by an ongoing corruption probe into a ~$610 million Chromebook procurement scandal linked to GoTo’s history.
- Indonesian authorities have raided GoTo’s offices, creating significant legal and reputational risks that could devalue the company and deter Grab from proceeding with the deal.
- Grab maintains a stronger financial position, narrowing its net loss, while GoTo’s market capitalisation has suffered, making the rumoured $7 billion valuation increasingly unrealistic.
- The merger faces potential regulatory opposition from Indonesia’s antitrust body (KPPU) over market concentration concerns, in addition to complications from TikTok’s recent acquisition of a majority stake in Tokopedia.
The potential $7 billion merger between Grab and GoTo, two of Southeast Asia’s heavyweight tech players, has hit a wall of uncertainty as Indonesian authorities intensify their scrutiny of GoTo in a high-profile corruption case. Reports suggest that the deal, which could reshape the regional ride-hailing and e-commerce landscape, is under threat due to allegations tied to a Rp 9.9 trillion (approximately $610 million) Chromebook procurement scandal. This situation raises critical questions about GoTo’s valuation, Grab’s strategic positioning, and the broader implications for Indonesia’s tech sector.
Corruption Allegations and GoTo’s Precarious Position
At the heart of the issue is an ongoing investigation by Indonesian prosecutors into the procurement of Chromebooks for underprivileged students between 2020 and 2022, a programme overseen by the Ministry of Education during the tenure of former minister Nadiem Makarim, who also founded Gojek (now part of GoTo). Authorities have conducted raids on GoTo’s offices as recently as July 2025, seizing documents and evidence linked to the alleged graft. The scale of the probe, involving a budget of nearly $610 million, has cast a shadow over GoTo’s corporate governance and financial stability.
While GoTo has clarified that neither Makarim nor former CEO Andre Soelistyo are currently implicated as suspects, the prolonged scrutiny and questioning of senior figures, including a former Tokopedia executive, have dented investor confidence. The company’s share price has struggled on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, with market sentiment reflecting fears of deeper systemic issues. If evidence of fraud or mismanagement emerges, GoTo’s valuation—already under pressure—could collapse, making any merger with Grab a far less attractive proposition.
Grab’s Strategic Calculus
Grab, headquartered in Singapore and listed on NASDAQ, has long viewed Indonesia as a cornerstone of its growth strategy, given the country’s population of nearly 280 million and burgeoning digital economy. As of Q2 2025 (April to June), Grab reported a 17% year-on-year revenue increase in its mobility segment across Southeast Asia, with Indonesia contributing significantly to this uptick, according to the company’s latest earnings release. A merger with GoTo could theoretically consolidate Grab’s dominance in ride-hailing and expand its e-commerce footprint via Tokopedia, but the risks are mounting.
The corruption probe introduces a layer of uncertainty that Grab’s management will be loath to ignore. Acquiring a company mired in legal and reputational challenges could drag down Grab’s own market perception, especially as it battles to sustain profitability. Bloomberg data indicates that Grab narrowed its net loss to $45 million in Q2 2025 (April to June) from $80 million in Q2 2024, but it remains far from consistent positive earnings. Taking on GoTo’s baggage might undo this fragile progress.
Market Share and Regulatory Hurdles
Should GoTo falter under the weight of the investigation, there is speculation among industry observers that Grab could absorb a significant portion of its driver base and market share in Indonesia. This outcome, while beneficial for Grab, would likely attract intense scrutiny from Indonesia’s antitrust body, the KPPU, which has already initiated research into the potential risks of such a merger as of May 2025. A near-monopoly in ride-hailing could trigger regulatory pushback, with conditions or outright rejection of any deal on the table.
Moreover, the broader tech landscape in Indonesia is shifting. TikTok’s acquisition of a 75% stake in Tokopedia, reported in July 2025, complicates GoTo’s structure and could influence merger negotiations. This development may reduce GoTo’s strategic value to Grab, particularly if e-commerce synergies are diminished.
Financial Snapshot: Grab vs. GoTo
The table below compares key financial metrics for Grab and GoTo based on the most recent available data for Q2 2025 (April to June), sourced from company filings, FactSet, and Bloomberg Terminal.
| Metric | Grab | GoTo |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (USD Million) | 658 | 279 |
| Net Loss (USD Million) | (45) | (110) |
| Market Cap (USD Billion) | 14.5 | 2.9 |
Broader Implications for Indonesia’s Tech Ecosystem
The unfolding saga also serves as a reminder of the governance risks inherent in Indonesia’s fast-growing tech sector. While the country has produced unicorns like Gojek and Tokopedia, the integration of political and corporate spheres—exemplified by figures like Makarim transitioning from founder to minister—can create conflicts of interest that undermine public trust. Investors eyeing Southeast Asian tech must now factor in heightened regulatory and ethical risks, particularly in markets where oversight mechanisms are still maturing.
Interestingly, posts on platforms like X have hinted at scepticism about the merger’s viability, with some users like MikeLongTerm suggesting that Grab might walk away unscathed. Such sentiment, while not authoritative, mirrors a growing wariness among retail investors about the deal’s fundamentals.
Conclusion: A Deal on Shaky Ground
The potential $7 billion merger between Grab and GoTo hangs in a delicate balance as of July 2025. The corruption probe into GoTo’s historical ties to a major public procurement scandal threatens to unravel its credibility and financial appeal. For Grab, the allure of market dominance in Indonesia must be weighed against the reputational and regulatory pitfalls of partnering with a tainted entity. As investigations proceed, the tech sector watches closely—not just for the fate of this deal, but for what it signals about the intersection of business and governance in one of the world’s most dynamic emerging markets.
References
Bloomberg Terminal. (2025, July 24). Financial Data for Grab and GoTo. Retrieved from Bloomberg Database.
Channel News Asia. (2025, July 12). Indonesia raids GoTo Gojek Tokopedia office in probe of US$610 million Chromebook graft case. Retrieved from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/indonesia-goto-gojek-tokopedia-chromebook-corruption-probe-5234846
FactSet. (2025, July 24). Grab and GoTo Market Capitalisation Data. Retrieved from https://www.factset.com/
Grab Holdings Limited. (2025, July 22). Q2 2025 Earnings Release. Retrieved from https://investors.grab.com
idnfinancials.com. (2023, December 11). TikTok akuisisi 75% Tokopedia, beban GOTO berkurang atau bertambah? Retrieved from https://idnfinancials.com/id/news/49238/tiktok-akuisisi-75-tokopedia-beban-goto-berkurang-atau-bertambah
Jakarta Globe. (2025, July 11). AGO Searches GoTo Office in Rp 9.9 Trillion Chromebook Corruption Probe. Retrieved from https://jakartaglobe.id/news/ago-searches-goto-office-in-rp-99-trillion-chromebook-corruption-probe
Kontan.co.id. (2021, May 17). Gojek dan Tokopedia Merger Jadi GoTo, Ini Respon Nadiem Makarim. Retrieved from https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/gojek-dan-tokopedia-merger-jadi-goto-ini-respon-nadiem-makarim
LongTerm, M. [@MikeLongTerm]. (2021, July 3). [Tweet]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1543076719317352450
LongTerm, M. [@MikeLongTerm]. (2022, August 23). [Tweet]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1694052256545411202
LongTerm, M. [@MikeLongTerm]. (2024, June 20). [Tweet]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1915097824380809480
LongTerm, M. [@MikeLongTerm]. (2024, August 2). [Tweet]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1932857678918746498
LongTerm, M. [@MikeLongTerm]. (2024, July 20). [Tweet]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1922338221075144886
Reuters. (2025, May 21). Indonesia’s antitrust body looking into risks from reported Grab-GoTo merger. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/indonesias-antitrust-body-looking-into-risks-reported-grab-goto-merger-2025-05-21/
Tempo.co. (2024, June 25). GoTo Office Raided over Alleged Chromebook Procurement Corruption. Retrieved from https://en.tempo.co/read/2027223/goto-office-raided-over-alleged-chromebook-procurement-corruption
Tempo.co. (2025, July 18). Kejagung Periksa Mantan Presdir Tokopedia hingga Eks CEO GoTo Soal Kasus Korupsi Chromebook. Retrieved from https://tempo.co/hukum/kejagung-periksa-mantan-presdir-tokopedia-hingga-eks-ceo-goto-lebih-dari-12-jam-soal-kasus-korupsi-chromebook-2005384
voi.id. (2024, June 25). The AGO Searches the GoTo Office Regarding the Alleged Corruption Case of the Chromebook. Retrieved from https://voi.id/en/news/495613
Withersworldwide. (2021, April 20). A Gojek-Tokopedia merger has ramifications for regional unicorns, including Grab and Sea. Retrieved from https://www.withersworldwide.com/en-gb/insight/read/a-gojek-tokopedia-merger-has-ramifications-for-regional-unicorns-including-grab-and-sea
World Bank. (2025). Indonesia Overview. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/overview
